*Statistics cited are a blend of stats after Week 17 and Week 18, and rankings are reflective of all 32 teams*
Divisional Round Games
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 52.5 - Spread Chiefs -8.5
- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 48.5 - Spread Eagles -7.5
- Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 48.5 - Spread Bills -5.5
- Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 45.5 - Spread 49ers -3.5
Jaguars at Chiefs
- Jaguars:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 10th
- Dropback EPA: 9th
- Rush EPA: 23rd
- Points per game: 10th
- Yards per game: 10th
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 20th
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 24th
- Rush EPA Allowed: 18th
- Points per game allowed: 12th
- Yards per game allowed: 24th
- Point Differential Ranking: 7th (+54)
- Offensive Rankings
- Chiefs:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 1st
- Dropback EPA: 1st
- Rush EPA: 17th
- Points per game: 1st
- Yards per game: 1st
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed: 9th
- Dropback EPA Allowed: 9th
- Rush EPA Allowed: 11th
- Points per game allowed: 16th
- Yards per game allowed: 11th
- Point Differential Ranking: 4th (+127)
- Offensive Rankings
The Chiefs are the class of the Divisional Round and are the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl. They're 8.5-point home favorites this weekend and for good reason. Patrick Mahomes II ($8,000) will take aim at an average at best pass defense that allowed 331 passing yards and 4 pass touchdowns to Mahomes back in Week 10. He's the best quarterback on the slate. Travis Kelce ($7,700) led the Chiefs in targets (152), receptions (110), receiving yards (1,338), and receiving touchdowns (12) in the regular season. In fact, across the entire league, he ranked 11th in targets per game (9.1), ninth in catches per game (6.5), 10th in receiving yards per game (81.3), and second in receiving touchdowns (12). Kelce's upside is as high as any pass-catcher on the entire slate. With Mecole Hardman surprisingly still injured, the relevant wide receivers this weekend will be JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,100), Kadarius Toney ($4,100), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,800), and Justin Watson ($3,100). Here were their route run percentages back in Week 17: Smith-Schuster 73%, Toney 33%, Valdes-Scantling 87%, and Watson 33%. But I've buried the lead here. Jerick McKinnon ($6,000) has scored a touchdown in six straight games and nine total touchdowns over that stretch. Eight of those touchdowns have come through the air. McKinnon has become an integral part of the passing game paired with Mahomes, making him one of the best plays of the entire weekend. Prioritize McKinnon rather than Isiah Pacheco ($5,500) since Pacheco is one-dimensional in a way that doesn't correlate with how the Chiefs offense successfully functions.
This game has the highest Over/Under (52.5), so Trevor Lawrence ($6,000) and his pass-catchers certainly are in play as well. Christian Kirk ($6,000), Zay Jones ($4,700), and Evan Engram ($4,300) all caught 73 or more passes this season, and all found the end zone in the Wild Card Round. Travis Etienne ($6,400) is a full fade. Since he's not consistently utilized in the passing game, game script doesn't project to be favorable for him here.
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