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March had a massive impact on the NFL. The impact can be felt across the fantasy skill positions, with running backs being one of the lower impact positions. However, key players have moved because they returned to their team or signed elsewhere in free agency.
Improvements
Leonard Fournette’s return to Tampa Bay is a good sign. Fournette flirted with New England in free agency, before re-signing with Tampa Bay. The deal is closer to a two-year deal than a three-year deal, but 2022 is a prime opportunity for Fournette. In the Top 6 in points per game in 2022, Fournette’s situation should improve with Ronald Jones II leaving for free agency and Tom Brady returning from his short-lived retirement.
James Conner’s contract looks like a two-year deal with the guarantees and dead money all but locking him into the Cardinals through 2023. Conner’s contract locks him into Arizona and his situation improved because Chase Edmonds left for Miami in free agency. Conner scored 14.2 points per game in the 10 games Edmonds played but scored 23.1 points per game in games where Edmonds missed. Conner averaged 15.4 touches when Edmonds played and 21.6 touches when Edmonds missed. The receiving uptick was notable, as Conner averaged 5 receptions per game when Edmonds did not play, more than three times what he did when Edmonds played (1.2). Conner has high-end RB1 within his range of outcomes.
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Cordarelle Patterson has been a dynamic player with the ball in his hands as a returner throughout his career. However, it took his fifth team in the ninth season of his career to find an offensive coordinator who could optimize his talents. Patterson had a career-high 205 touches, and his 153 rushes from 2021 are almost half his career total (320). Atlanta could potentially add a running back in the draft, but Patterson’s return to Atlanta is reassurance he will be with an offense that is comfortable maximizing his skillset.
Marlon Mack was buried behind Jonathan Taylor and was a frequent game-day inactive in 2021. Almost any change would benefit Mack but landing with divisional rival Houston is a great opportunity. Rex Burkhead returns to the lineup, but Houston is a team in search of future foundational pieces, which could give Mack a great opportunity to compete for a workload. Mack as a third-round rookie pick investment could return value, as he would be at worst an injury-away player.
For those who selected Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round of startup drafts in 2020, the past two years have been a letdown. Edwards-Helaire hit for a starter season as a rookie before a disappointing second season. The Chiefs added Ronald Jones II, but Jones is limited as a receiver, and the loss of Tyreek Hill leaves uncertainty in the passing game that could be filled by Edwards-Helaire.
Downgrades
Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert were both signed with the Dolphins. The competition along with the change in the offensive coordinators with new head coach Mike McDaniel bringing in former 49ers running back Raheem Mostert leaves the situation uncertain. Treating Edmonds and Mostert as injury-away running backs with the hope for more is probably the best bet.
Melvin Gordon remains the biggest source of uncertainty in the running back marketplace. Denver remains a potential return spot, while Baltimore has also shown recent interest. Baltimore’s interest should raise a concern about the rehabilitation of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards who both missed the 2021 season. Similarly, New England’s interest in Leonard Fournette should raise concern the team is not satisfied with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson.
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