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March had a massive impact on the NFL. The impact can be felt across the tight end position in the form of free agency signings, franchise tags, and trades. Below are the tight ends who saw an improvement or downgrade from March’s fallout.
Improvement
Zach Ertz returned to Arizona in free agency, which is a great outcome for his fantasy profile. In six games with Philadelphia in 2021, Ertz averaged 4.8 targets per game and was TE19 in points per game. When Ertz landed with Arizona, he averaged 7.2 targets per game and was TE6 in points per game. The contract with Arizona basically guarantees Ertz will be with Arizona for the next two seasons and could be a target beneficiary of Christian Kirk’s departure in free agency.
Hayden Hurst’s career has been a complete roller coaster. Drafted by the Ravens in the first round ahead of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews, Hurst was traded to Atlanta after Andrews broke out. Hurst then posted a top-12 finish in 2020 before the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts with the fourth pick in the draft. Pitts’s presence in the offense put Hurst directly on the backburner of the Atlanta offense. Signing with Cincinnati after C.J. Uzomah departed to the Jets, Hurst has a wide-open situation in Cincinnati and should be in the TE2 conversation.
The Russell Wilson trade opened the door for an Albert Okwuegbunam breakout as Denver upgraded the quarterback position while shipping out Okwuegbunam’s target competition in Noah Fant. Okwuegbunam has only been targeted 55 times through two seasons, but his yards per route run on his career (2.02) signal an elite upside, especially in the context of Denver’s limited passing offense the past two seasons. By way of reference, Fant only produced 1.56 yards per route run in his three seasons in Denver. In the range where Okwuegbunam is ranked at tight end, there is a lot of sameness, but Okwuegbunam presents a unique upside opportunity.
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Evan Engram got his much-needed departure from the New York Giants and a reset of his career with the tight-end friendly Doug Pederson in Jacksonville. Pederson catered an offense around Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert when he was the head coach in Philadelphia. Now, Pederson lands Engram, who had a strong start to his career before fading off the past two years. Engram’s one-year deal is a good chance to rehabilitate himself in a more favorable system than he played with the Giants. Notably, Pederson saw Engram twice per season when he was the head coach of the Eagles, so his familiarity may have made a positive impression on Pederson. Like Hurst, Engram should be in the TE2 conversation.
Downgrade
O.J. Howard signed a relatively cheap one-year 4.5-million-dollar contract with the Buffalo Bills. This is a pure prove it type deal, with Howard behind Dawson Knox on the depth chart. Howard has been in the top 20% of points per route run in his career, so he has upside if he gets a full opportunity and is healthy in 2022. However, that he had to settle for a prove-it deal behind a more established Knox is an ominous sign for Howard's career arc.
"Noah Fant SZN" lasted about a half-hour. When the Russell Wilson trade was announced, many rejoiced at the thought Fant would actually have a star quarterback. Then the next shoe dropped when Fant was announced as part of the package going to Seattle for Russell Wilson. Fant now reunites with Drew Lock in a new look Seattle offense that will look like the ceiling capping situation in Denver. Fant has not shown his efficiency to overcome low volume and poor quarterback play.
Franchise Tags
There were three franchise tags at the tight end position. The franchise tag gives the team another year of control over the players, with the ability to negotiate an extension until the summer.
David Njoku is a beneficiary of the Deshaun Watson trade. As it stands, with Jarvis Landry still a free agent and Austin Hooper released, Njoku is a potential second option in the passing game behind Amari Cooper. Njoku is working on a long-term deal with the Browns and should be in the TE2 conversation.
Mike Gesicki’s situation gets more clouded with the trade of Tyreek Hill, but a better offense could support higher production. Gesicki was largely thought of as a product of an offense with a weak supporting cast in 2019 and 2020, but Gesicki actually had the highest target share of his career 18.2% despite the addition of Jaylen Waddle. Gesicki will again be in a contract year if he does not sign an extension this summer.
Dalton Schultz can be a beneficiary of the Amari Cooper trade. Schultz is in a better situation than he is an overt talent. Dallas is in the market for rookie wide receivers and tight ends in the draft, and would likely benefit from an extension with Dallas.
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