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March had a massive impact on the NFL. The impact can be felt across the fantasy skill positions, but more so than in prior years, the impact was on the quarterbacks. Below are quarterbacks who saw an improvement or downgrade from March’s fallout.
Improvements
The Russell Wilson trade to Denver came within hours after Aaron Rodgers re-signed with the Packers. There is uncertainty in the offense, as new Denver head coach Nathaniel Hackett was not the primary play-caller with the Green Bay Packers in 2021, but there are signs of hope. With Hackett in Green Bay as the offensive coordinator, the Packers were middle of the league in designed pass rate, while Seattle consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in recent years. Wilson has been a top-five performer in points per dropback in eight of his ten seasons in the league. The investment by Denver should creep Wilson back towards a league average passing rate. Wilson should be in line for an extension after the 2022 season.
The Raiders’ trade for Davante Adams helped Derek Carr on two fronts. First, Adams raises both the floor and the ceiling for Carr in 2021. For a quarterback without a real dominant outside wide receiver since the Amari Cooper-Michael Crabtree era, Adams represents a massive upgrade to pair with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. Second, the Raiders gave up draft assets, their first two picks in 2022, for Adams, making it unlikely the Raiders can address the position in a trade. With Carr in the final year of his deal, he should be on contract extension watch this offseason. If he receives a long-term extension, he should get high-end QB2 treatment in dynasty formats.
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Mitchell Trubisky gets a second chance with the Pittsburgh Steelers. There is nothing that commits the Steelers to Trubisky long-term and the deal does not prevent the Steelers from selecting another quarterback in the 2022 or 2023 drafts. However, Trubisky lands with a good franchise and a good coach, which gives him a chance to rejuvenate his career. With Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Najee Harris, and Pat Freiermuth, Trubisky could get into the QB2 conversation quite comfortably, with the upside for more.
Tua Tagovailoa moves from the wait-and-see mode into the now-or-never mode. The Dolphins brought back Mike Gesicki on a franchise tag and made a splash play for Tyreek Hill in a trade with Kansas City. Factor in the additions of Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert at running back along with Terron Armstead at left tackle, and there are no more excuses for Tagovailoa. This set of weapons will either help him transition into a difference-making starter or help lure a franchise quarterback to Miami next year.
Downgrades
On one hand, the loss of Tyreek Hill is a major downgrade with Patrick Mahomes II. This is reflected in draft data over the past month as Josh Allen and Justin Herbert have crept ahead of Mahomes in dynasty startup drafts. However, the floor for Mahomes is still very high with Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster both proven performers. The offense may look different from the pre-2021 version, but the new defense structures in the league likely eliminated that offense anyway. Smith-Schuster and another addition via trade or the draft could diversify the second phase of the Mahomes career. He is still a high-end producer and any discount in the trade market is one you should use to acquire, particularly in Superflex or 2QB formats.
Aaron Rodgers purportedly wanted more control and more weapons in Green Bay if he was going to re-sign. Rodgers then signed a big extension before the Packers traded Davante Adams to the Raiders. This leaves the Packers with a giant hole in the receiver room, particularly with Marquez Valdes-Scantling also departing in free agency. The Packers figure to be in on remaining free agents while addressing the position in the draft or trades, but there are major ceiling question marks for Rodgers when his best wide receiver is Allen Lazard.
We should also have questions about Trey Lance. The San Francisco 49ers should have traded Jimmy Garoppolo by now. Garoppolo’s shoulder surgery complicated the trade market but leaves the 49ers with Garoppolo still on the market and a limited market of buyers. If Carolina or Seattle is not interested in Garoppolo, a return to San Francisco looks possible. With smoke in the news about Trey Lance’s readiness to play, Garoppolo opening the season as the 2022 starter is not out of the question.
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