It’s hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I’ve been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that’s like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the players who have changed my mind and why.
Links to all four positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
The Quarterbacks Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Dak Prescott, Dallas
- Russell Wilson, Denver
- Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
- Jordan Love, Green Bay
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco
- Kyler Murray, Arizona
- Sam Howell, Washington
- Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee
Dak Prescott (ADP: QB10) Won’t Be Elite, But He’ll Be Fine
What I Thought: Prescott led the NFL in interceptions last year and lost Kellen Moore as a play-caller in favor of head coach Mike McCarthy, who seemingly lost his mojo years ago in his final years in Green Bay. McCarthy's rhetoric argued for a run-heavy, methodical, predictable approach that would lead Dallas' offense from its top-5 perch to the middle of the pack. I had Prescott ranked as QB16, ensuring someone else would draft him.
What I Think: I'm still confident McCarthy won't reach the heights that Moore did with the offense, but I've softened my stance thanks to a confluence of positive developments. One, the offensive line looks much better, with Tyron Smith healthy and Zack Martin happy. Two, the receiving corps was exemplary in the preseason with Brandin Cooks stepping into the starting lineup, Michael Gallup healthy, and enthusiastically embracing the No. 3 role, and last year's rookie dud Jalen Tolbert flipping the switch. I still don’t view Prescott as an elite fantasy option, but I think you can comfortably project him as a low-end QB1 and a high-priority QB2 in Superflex leagues.
