An Early Look at the 2024 Coaching Carousel
We're not even in December yet, and two NFL franchises have already made head coaching changes. The Las Vegas Raiders fired Josh McDaniels several weeks ago, and the Carolina Panthers jettisoned Frank Reich on Monday. Reich will now go down in NFL history for being fired in-season in back-to-back years (he was fired by the Colts last year).
Reich's firing was followed later in the day by comments from ESPN's Adam Schefter, who said he would take the "over" on at least 7-10 head coaching changes this year. For context, the NFL averages nearly seven changes per season, and we only had five new head coaches in 2022. So, in a way, Schefter was merely playing the odds when he made the proclamation on The Pat McAfee Show.
Is Schefter on point with his prediction? Here's our look at the current coaching environment and how we see the carousel developing in the coming months.
Already Fired (2)
Las Vegas Raiders – Josh McDaniels
In early November, Raiders owner Mark Davis fired McDaniels, general manager David Ziegler, and offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi in a complete overhaul. McDaniels was just 9-16 in 1.5 seasons at the helm, and the offense struggled (26th in points scored) this season. Linebackers coach Antonio Pierce was named the interim coach and presumably will get a shot at keeping the job in 2024 if Las Vegas shows improvement down the stretch. But if minority owner Tom Brady can orchestrate a splashy hire, Pierce is likely expendable.
Carolina Panthers – Frank Reich
Panthers owner David Tepper announced Frank Reich's firing on Monday, following the Panthers' 10th loss of the season, dropping them to a league-worst 1-10. It's a bitter outcome for the well-respected Reich, who has not had the embarrassment of being fired in-season in back-to-back seasons. While it's hard to argue about the results – Carolina ranks 29th in points scored and 30th in points allowed – the rash reaction by Tepper may cloud his ability to hire another top-tier candidate. For now, special teams coordinator Chris Tabor will serve as the interim head coach, while senior assistant Jim Caldwell and incumbent OC Thomas Brown will try to reinvigorate the offense and instill hope that Bryce Young can still be the franchise's cornerstone.
Likely to be Gone (4)
Chicago Bears – Matt Eberflus
The Bears are likely to move on from Eberflus after two misbegotten seasons. After a 3-14 season as a rookie head coach in 2022, the franchise has shown no growth and currently stands at 3-8. Eberflus' defensive roots haven't helped, as the Bears defense allows 26 points per game (29th), and the offense has sputtered (18th), leaving the franchise unclear whether Justin Fields is the long-term answer. Chicago should be among the most desirable openings, given the significant projected cap room to rebuild the roster and two potential Top-5 draft picks, thanks to having their own and Carolina's.
Los Angeles Chargers – Brandon Staley
Brandon Staley has a winning record (23-22) through 2.5 seasons, but that doesn't mean much when you dig deeper. The Chargers are moving in the wrong direction, currently sitting at 4-7, despite having committed a massive contract to quarterback Justin Herbert. Once a young quarterback transitions off their rookie contract into a mega-deal, the clock is ticking on contention, and it's hard to see Staley building a contender as the talent on the roster thins a bit. The hiring of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has been okay – the Chargers are 8th in points – but the offense hasn't elevated and is one-dimensional. Staley is a defensive-minded coach, yet the Chargers' defense has been terrible throughout his tenure despite having the highest defensive payroll in the league. Los Angeles will be a sought-after job because of Herbert and the state-of-the-art facilities.
New England Patriots – Bill Belichick
Yes, it's time. Bill Belichick may not get "fired" at season's end, but a mutual parting of ways is all but guaranteed. New England is on its way to a third losing record in four seasons, an unimaginable turn of events after the most dominant run in NFL history that preceded it. The team ranks 29th on offense and 21st on defense, Belichick's worst defensive showing since his last year in Cleveland (1995). There are rampant but unsubstantiated rumors linking Belichick to several other teams in 2024, but there's no point in giving into baseless speculation when we'll know the reality soon enough.
Washington Commanders – Ron Rivera
Ron Rivera is well-liked in league circles, but his time in Washington is likely over as new owner Josh Harris looks to reshape the franchise and energize the long-suffering fanbase. The Commanders are 26-39 under Rivera and rank 21st offensively and dead last (32nd) defensively. Some want to see offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy get a shot at the head job, but Harris is far more likely to bring in an entirely new staff.
Depends on How the Season Finishes (5)
Atlanta Falcons – Arthur Smith
The Falcons are 5-6 but currently sit atop the NFC South. Smith is 19-26 as Atlanta's head coach, and the offense, supposedly his expertise, has sputtered (22nd in points this year). But the team hasn't had a viable quarterback in his tenure, and Falcons owner Arthur Blank is patient and rational. This is a genuine coin-flip situation, probably defined by how the season finishes. If the Falcons can hang on to a playoff berth, Smith could get one more season (perhaps with an upgraded quarterback) to right the ship. But if the team stumbles down the stretch, it would be hard to argue with making a change.
Buffalo Bills – Sean McDermott
The Bills situation is the most puzzling. Buffalo entered the season as a Super Bowl contender, and many of the metrics suggest the team remains among the league's best. Buffalo is 7th in adjusted DVOA, 5th in points scored, 6th in points allowed, and 4th in point differential. Yet, the team sits at just 6-6 entering its bye week and on the outside looking in for an AFC playoff spot. McDermott effectively replaced both coordinators (Leslie Frazier "retired," and Ken Dorsey was fired two weeks ago) this season, leaving him squarely in the crosshairs if things worsen. Bills ownership can't and won't fire McDermott without a specific replacement in mind, but we can't rule out a change if the Bills don't finish strong.
Cleveland Browns – Kevin Stefanski
Kevin Stefanski's future could go either way, but he controls his destiny. The Browns are currently 7-4 and positioned for a playoff spot; if he makes the playoffs, he's probably safe. But Cleveland lost Deshaun Watson for the season and could easily fall out of contention. Few coaches can survive three straight losing seasons, and we know ownership is prone to bold, impulsive moves.
New Orleans Saints – Dennis Allen
Owner Gayle Benson understandably wanted to maintain continuity following Sean Payton's departure, so elevating defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to the head job made sense. But two years into the handoff, it's hard to see New Orleans as anything more than a shadow of what they were with Payton and, more importantly, quarterback Drew Brees. The Saints sit at 5-6 and are tied for the NFC South lead. If Allen can get the Saints into the playoffs, Benson will probably keep everything intact. But if Allen finishes with back-to-back losing records, it may be time for a proper rebuild with a new vision for elevating the proud franchise.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Todd Bowles
The Buccaneers are 4-7 and haven't looked like a contender on either side of the ball. But they're also just one game out of the division lead with four divisional games left, including two against the Panthers. It's hard to say, even at 4-7, that Bowles and his staff are underperforming expectations, but they've also not done enough to dissuade ownership from keeping their eyes and ears open to an alternative.
Probably Safe, but Stranger Things Have Happened (6)
Dallas Cowboys – Mike McCarthy
There is no way Mike McCarthy's job should be in trouble. Yes, the Cowboys are two games back from the Philadelphia Eagles, but everything else looks pristine. Dallas is 8-3, ranks 3rd in team DVOA, and leads the league with a +162-point differential. McCarthy took over play-calling this year and has silenced the critics, as Dallas currently sits atop the league (1st) in points per game (31.5). And the defense isn't far behind (4th). So why is McCarthy on this list? Because Jerry Jones owns the team and said before the season he thinks the franchise is built for a championship run. If Dallas were to falter down the stretch or get bounced from the playoffs quickly, you can't completely rule out a change, particularly if Jones thinks he can lure someone like Bill Belichick or Jim Harbaugh to Dallas.
Los Angeles Rams – Sean McVay
Sean McVay is not in any danger of being fired, but he's on the list because he seriously considered retiring last season and taking a lucrative offer from Amazon to join their broadcast team. The Rams are 5-6 and rank in the middle of the pack offensively (16th) and defensively (16th). But there's no clear path toward regaining playoff relevance, and McVay may not want to hang around for a multi-year rebuild. He's probably staying, but it wouldn't shock us if he walks away, puts in a few seasons as an analyst, and then returns to the league for a handpicked opportunity.
New York Giants – Brian Daboll
The Giants are 4-8 and are dead last (32nd) offensively and not much better (26th) defensively. It's been a disastrous second season for Daboll and his staff, and ownership would certainly be justified in making a change. But we think the chances he'll be fired are extremely low, as he won Coach of the Year in 2022 and has faced undeniable adversity in losing Daniel Jones amid myriad other vital injuries. Expect Daboll to get a pass in 2023 but be on the hot seat in 2024 if he can't set the franchise back on a positive trajectory.
New York Jets – Robert Saleh
The Jets are 4-7 and have a terrible (30th) offense, while the defense – Robert Saleh's focus – ranks 18th, far below preseason expectations for the talented group. However, this entire season is framed against Aaron Rodgers' season-ending injury, and most analysts think the Jets would be in contention for the AFC crown if he were under center. What Aaron Rodgers thinks of him will probably decide Saleh's fate. The most likely outcome is Rodgers returns in 2024 for another go at the season they thought they were in for in 2023.
Seattle Seahawks – Pete Carroll
There is no indication Carroll is looking to retire, and the Seahawks ownership isn't going to push him out. But we have to mention that he'll be 73 years old next year, making him the oldest NFL head coach in league history. It shouldn't surprise us if he decides to end his storied career, but considering he has the energy and intensity of someone 20 years younger, we're not expecting it.
Tennessee Titans – Mike Vrabel
Mike Vrabel has been an unqualified success as the head coach of the Tennessee Titans, and there's no reason to think ownership would be looking to replace him. But he's on the list because Vrabel could be the one looking for a change, and we think a handful of franchises would jump at the chance to hire him.
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