Understanding the Value of TEs in your Dynasty Startup Draft

Photo: Dale Zanine, USA Today Sports

For years, we've heard about the fantasy wasteland at the tight end position. There is Travis Kelce and the field, and fantasy managers must decide how much they value the position early in drafts. Drafting a new dynasty team compounds this issue.

If you make a mistake in redraft leagues, it affects you for one season. You can learn and fix it next year. However, in a dynasty, you're stuck with these players until you find a trade partner, and bad decisions in your draft can haunt you for years.

Now that we've raised the stakes with appropriate levels of hyperbole, let's look at the tight ends available in the early, middle, and late rounds of a dynasty startup draft and help you decide how to value the players at each stage.

The Early Rounds (First 50 picks)

Five tight ends are going in the first five rounds of dynasty startups. Each has elite upside and at least one red flag, too, either age, inconsistency, or trouble at quarterback. Here is a quick look at the top five fantasy tight ends you'll consider early in your draft.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City

The only issue with Kelce stems from four little numbers on his birth certificate: 1989! At 33 years old, Kelce is at the top of his game, but some view him as a flawed dynasty asset. Like a new car, the minute you add him, he's worth less than what you paid. However, Kelce has been the best fantasy tight end in six of the last seven seasons, and the margin is not particularly close.

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On average, Kelce beats the 2nd-best tight end by about two points per game and the 10th-best by almost eight per game. Approaching 34 years old, it is inevitable that Kelce's time in the NFL will end soon. But for now, he is the top receiver for one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and he's likely to remain so for the next two seasons, at least. So if you want to win immediately, your odds are far better with Kelce on your roster.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore

Andrews is 26 years old and the only non-Travis Kelce to finish as the best fantasy tight end in the last seven years. So drafting him should be an easy decision. He was still a top-3 tight end last year, but his statistics were far from his excellent 2021 season.

The issue with Andrews is simply comparing him to Kelce. Andrews scored 301 points in 2021 but dropped to 190 in 2022. Kelce hasn't failed to top 200 fantasy points since 2015. He is still worth a pick in these early rounds, but you might have to hide your jealousy from the Kelce manager.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta

Pitts was born into the dynasty top-3 but has yet to do much to earn his keep. His athletic profile was unheard of for a rookie tight end. He plays more like a wide receiver, and fantasy managers salivated at what kind of numbers he would put up. Unfortunately, through two seasons, the only way to describe those numbers is disappointing.

His 1000 yards as a rookie look great, but it's overshadowed by scoring just a single touchdown. In 2022, he doubled his touchdown output but registered just 28 catches for 356 yards in 10 games. At 22 years old, he still has every bit of the upside he came into the league with, but there is a risk of another mediocre season or two while Atlanta solves their quarterback problem.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota

At 25 years old, with two top-five seasons already, Hockenson might be what the fantasy world was hoping for from Kyle Pitts. Interstingly, he and Pitts have an almost identical draft cost, so your choice is between upside and proven production, with a three-year age gap. Hockenson was the 2nd-best fantasy tight end in 10 games with Minnesota and should be an integral part of their offense for years to come.

George Kittle, San Francisco

Kittle has almost every red flag fantasy managers try to avoid, but his talent keeps him in the top-five conversation. He is about to be 30 years old, rarely plays an entire season, and the San Francisco quarterback situation is murky with injuries to Trey Lance and Brock Purdy, plus Sam Darnold as the backup plan.

Kittle was the No. 3 tight end in fantasy last year and scored a career-high 11 touchdowns. He might be the best value in the early rounds if we could guarantee that production. Unfortunately, if he were to fall back to his career average of five touchdowns, he would fall out of the Top 5, and that risk, along with his age and injury history, make him the most questionable of the top-five candidates.

Before we move onto the middle of your draft, let's discuss a draft strategy called Bully Tight End. The thought process here is to land two elite players at the position, creating scarcity for others in the league and a positional advantage for your team.

While this can be an effective strategy, we've seen over the past few seasons that the second-through-fifth-ranked tight ends rarely match the elite production of the top tight end. So outside of drafting Kelce and a younger backup plan, the talent you're passing up in these early rounds is more valuable than hoarding slightly above-average tight ends.