The Dynasty Investor: WR Value

Photo: Mitchell Layton, USA Today Sports

To recap the process, the way we measure value in the Dynasty Investor is by looking at a player's KeepTradeCut (KTC) vs. his fantasy point per game (PPG) in a ratio called the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. P/E = KTC / PPG / 10. Then you compare that player's P/E ratio to a like-for-like cluster of players from an age, production, and potential perspective. Players in the same cluster should be valued similarly in the market on a P/E basis. If they aren't, then an arbitrage opportunity exists to create value.

This article will use these principles to find value in the wide receiver position.

Key Points Up Front

• Diontae Johnson is too cheap and is simply a must-add, our highest conviction WR buy.
• Our other buys are A.J. Brown, DJ Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, Brandin Cooks, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
• We are upgrading to buy both Treylon Burks and Rondale Moore.
• We are downgrading to sell Jonathan Mingo.

WR Clusters

We will now look at the fantasy wide receiver landscape broken up into clusters of similar players by age and PPG. These are NOT rankings; they are groupings of like-for-like players. Please take a look at the chart below. This chart is an exciting way to look at the wide receiver group. The clusters are graphed with increasing estimated 2023 PPG on the horizontal axis and decreasing age (youngest on top) on the vertical axis. The players are divided into clusters shown by the gray dashed lines by PPGs of 18+, 15-18, 12-15, 10-12, 7-10, and by age: <25, 25-28, & 29+. Visually these clusters are grouped by color. Also, the size of the bubble represents each player's KTC, so the bigger the bubble, the higher the KTC. Below we will break apart each cluster to look for value amongst the like-for-like players — big shout out to @NFL_Billy_Jones for helping me put this chart together.

Also, look at this chart which graphs KTC vs. estimated 2023 PPG. We added a best-fit line. I think this is a fascinating chart, and it might indicate that players above the line are maybe a little expensive on a KTC vs. PPG basis, and those below the line are a little cheap. It's an exciting way to look at it, but we will explore these valuations in the cluster tables below.

WR Cluster | Age <25 | 18+ PPG

Cluster Trading notes:

No need to spend too much time here; Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are in a cluster of their own at wide receiver. They are young and score more points per game (PPG) than everyone else. From a dynasty perspective, they are deservedly the highest-priced non-quarterback assets out there. I do agree that Jefferson should be WR1 and Chase WR2 right now, but I don't see much difference between the two. If you are interested in practicing the tried and true Dynasty Investor concept of compounding (trading down the price curve for similar age and production and collecting the extra), you could move from Jefferson to Chase and collect an early 2023 2nd or maybe even a late 2024 1st. You won't be able to do that in every league, but I think it's an interesting way to compound the extra and not give up that much dynasty upside.

We will discuss some of this soon, but the real question is, can any young guys vault themselves into this upper cluster? There are probably a few guys where it's possible, but it doesn't look like it at the moment. Maybe Garrett Wilson develops a unique relationship with new Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and moves himself up, maybe CeeDee Lamb or Jaylen Waddle will take a step up this year, or perhaps it's a guy that isn't even in the NFL yet in Marvin Harrison Jr. who will look to enter the draft next year after already being viewed as one of the best wide receivers in college football. Time will tell.

Cluster Charting:

Again not much to discuss on the charts. There was a little uncertainty around Jefferson coming in as a rookie, but that quickly faded in his rookie season, and he's just been on a reasonably straight path upwards since then. Chase started higher the year after and fell off a bit before he got on the field, but once he started playing, his price shot up. Jefferson and Chase were in lockstep to start the last offseason, but Jefferson pulled ahead and built up a decent gap above Chase during the 2022 season. The best entry point for Jefferson/Chase was likely before they played a down in the NFL, so rookie drafts or moving up to your roster in devy leagues. It's been exceedingly difficult to trade for players like these unless you are willing to include quarterbacks.

WR Cluster | Age 29+ | 18+ PPG

Cluster Trading notes:

This cluster is grouped fairly tightly from a KTC and PPG perspective. By age 29 and older wide receivers have experienced or are in the process of experiencing their price age cliff, and you can see that below in the cluster KTC chart. So at this point, we are not expecting significant relative moves upward in KTC from any of these guys. That's already happened and most likely won't happen again. You roster these guys to win fantasy championships by scoring you a ton of fantasy PPG. Don't get me wrong, these guys are excellent, but their dynasty purpose is for win-now squads, so if you are not in win-now mode, I'd be looking to trade down the age curve or cash out for picks.

As far as cluster trading goes, you can see in the above chart that Tyreek Hill looks a little overpriced from a P/E perspective, and Cooper Kupp is a little underpriced. So from a compounding perspective, I'd be interested in moving from Tyreek Hill to Cooper Kupp and collecting the extra pick or fantasy asset. In doing that, you are giving up about one year in age, but gaining almost a full two PPG, assuming we get a healthy quarterback, Matt Stafford, and Kupp back for 2023. That's exactly the move you want to make if you are trying to win now.

Cluster Charting:

You can see back in April of 2020; we had two batches, Adams & Hill in the 8000-9000 range and Kupp & Diggs in the 6000 range. They all finish this chart bunched together in the high 4000s to mid 5000s range. I'll call your attention to a couple of interesting parts of the chart; let's start with the 2020 season; take a look at the move in Diggs' price that season, that is a huge move, and that is his first year playing with the Bills and Josh Allen, and he goes from the 5000s to 7000s very quickly. Then in the 2021 season, Cooper Kupp has his fantastic nearly 26 PPG season with the Rams, going from the 4000s to the 6000s, a tremendous increase in valuation and pricing. And finally, in the 2022 season, you can see Tyreek Hill, in his first season with the Miami Dolphins, shoot up in the season.

When people talk about an age cliff, we are talking about this. Production is still the same-ish, but as even very productive wide receivers get to be 29 and 30, then 31, their dynasty value and KTC price tend to fall and fall rapidly. It's like catching a falling knife; you don't want to do that because you will probably get hurt. Best to just let the knife fall and pick it up off the ground after it's on the floor. While it may never be a straight line down to the 3000s for these good wide receivers approaching their age cliff; the fall always happens.

WR Cluster | Age <25 | 15-18 PPG

Cluster Trading notes:

The top of this cluster are the guys we think could get into that Jefferson/Chase cluster. We're not saying it happens, but these guys seem to have the highest odds. Lamb put up a 17.7 PPG season last year, so it's not a stretch to imagine him above 18 PPG in 2023. But can he get to over 20 PPG? That is definitely to be determined.

Furthermore, in Lamb's first two seasons, he put up less than 15 PPG, so was the 17.7 PPG season a fluke? Again I think the setup is good, and if anyone can do it, he might have the best probability, but it requires an entire season of a healthy Dak Prescott. Interestingly, the 2023 consensus estimates for Garrett Wilson are more than a full 2 PPG less than Lamb, even accounting for Aaron Rodgers, and Wilson's price is greater than Lamb's. That tells us there is a lot of upside already built into Wilson's price.

We're relatively positive on Jaylen Waddle and Amon-Ra St. Brown at this point, but we don't see any significant discrepancies in their KTC prices. And Tee Higgins looks a little underpriced. For this cluster, we're not sure compounding makes sense, as the top three guys, if they hit in 2023, could cluster up, implying a higher P/E valuation and upside. We're not sure if you want to give that upside up just to collect the extra 2024 late 1st you would gain to go from Wilson to Higgins or the extra 2024 Mid 2nd to go from Wilson to St. Brown.

Cluster Charting: