Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 10

Photo: Mike Dinovo, USA Today Sports

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CJ Stround continued his record-breaking pace in Week 9, and a welcome return from injuries for multiple players occurred. Footballguys has you covered on movement within dynasty rankings heading into Week 10.

Question: Does the success of C.J. Stroud and the team situation of Bijan Robinson change how you approach rookie drafts in Superflex leagues?

Jay Stein: I'm a firm believer in process over results. And it gets to the point of controlling what you can control. We can't control outcomes, but we can control the decision-making process that leads to those outcomes. I have a well-defined process on Superflex rookie drafts based on data/analytics to determine how successful these prospects might be. Each year, I'll learn from the results of the rookie class, and then, if needed, I'll tweak the process. If you have a time-tested process with fairly good historical performance, the tweaks shouldn't be significant adjustments, just minor little tweaks at the margin. Talent level drives my process, and team situation is more of a tie-breaker or a differentiator among similar talent levels. Talent doesn't change that much, but the team situation is fluid.

Interestingly, my process had both CJ Stroud and Bijan Robinson in tier one and the top prospects of their respective positions. I saw Robinson as a superior talent to Stroud w/in the tier, and at the time, I didn't particularly feel either situation was all that great. We can't let one anecdotal piece of evidence change a good process. Still, one thing I'll keep reminding myself over and over again next year is that in Superflex dynasty fantasy football, the quarterback is king.

Jason Wood: Not at all. Most rookie drafts occur before we know how the team and coaching philosophies will really impact their play. Given how vital a run-heavy attack was to Arthur Smith's prior successes in Tennessee, we had every reason to think Bijan Robinson landed in a perfect situation. Robinson seemed like a sure bet for 20-plus touches and most goal-line opportunities. Yet, that's different from how things have turned out. As for C.J. Stroud, his success thus far is encouraging, but where you drafted him comes down to whether you correctly assessed his skill set and risks on draft day, particularly against the other available rookie quarterbacks. This year was a divisive quarterback class, with no clear-cut "can't-miss" top option.

Scouting college players is challenging on its best day. Even the league's personnel departments, who scout these players for a living, have massive volatility in their success rate of predicting outcomes. So, to think any of us, because we're passionate about college football, would have a real edge is full of hubris. All we can do is understand each player's underlying skills and risks and try to overlay those traits against the scarcity value of the positions in fantasy. It will be hard to overlook a potential workhorse tailback with an every-down skill set over a rookie quarterback, even in Superflex.

Zareh Kantzabedian: I wouldn't. Rookie draft strategy depends on not only league format but also the depth of talent of a rookie class. Adjusting to team-specific situations is warranted, but there needs to be a larger sample size regarding Arthur Smith. Sure, Derrick Henry played under Smith in Tennessee, but Smith was only the offensive coordinator then. A player's pedigree and draft capital are two variables that many of us give significant weight to. Bijan Robinson was regarded as an immensely talented running back, and his first-round draft capital reflected that. Additionally, many of the other 2023 rookies paled compared to Robinson.

C.J. Stroud, on the other hand, is breaking rookie records. It's been over a decade since we've seen a rookie quarterback do what Stroud is doing. He's an outlier, and adjusting the process based on an outlier is a rough road. Many people did not see Stroud coming, including the Texans.

Christian Williams: While the early returns haven't been fruitful, the process of selecting Bijan Robinson ahead of C.J. Stroud in some rookie drafts remains sound. The scarcity of young, elite running backs should always push that profile to the top of drafts, even if there are potential quarterbacks to select. Revisionist history says Stroud was always the correct pick, and I had him as my QB1 and clear 1.02 behind Robinson in my final rookie rankings, but his profile was risky. From a value perspective, the quarterback hitting will always net you a positive return, even if you choose to move off that asset early on. But Robinson's value is more stable, should hold steady through the Arthur Smith experience, and he's still one of the few running backs I'd be comfortable constructing a roster around. That's a long way of saying that dynasty managers shouldn't let half-season production sway their rookie draft philosophies.

Corey Spala: I am a firm believer in talent over situations. With this specific question, I find it hard to truly encompass the decision-making process behind how you draft in a rookie draft. To keep it short, If you had the 1.01 and needed a quarterback, you should take the quarterback – or trade the 1.01 to someone who wanted Robinson. If your rookie draft follows the NFL draft, you would have noticed Atlanta spending the eighth overall pick on him. This is reason to believe they would have made him a focal part of their offense. Robinson is still averaging 16 opportunities per game. For reference, Christian McCaffrey averages 21.8.

Regardless, the talent is there. Talent does not change, while situations do. I had leagues where I took the quarterback with the first pick, and I had a league where I took Robinson with the first pick. Every team you have is unique to the league, and you need to make decisions based on those two variables.

I will note Stroud's success as an important reminder in Superflex leagues, where quarterbacks reign supreme. I will also note that many people were taking Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson ahead of Stroud, so tread carefully in hindsight analysis.

Quarterback Movement

C.J. Stroud, Houston

Jay Stein: The rookie QB is a big dynasty riser this week after leading the Texans to a thrilling win against the Buccaneers, where he threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns. He is now the betting favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. On the season, Stroud has thrown for 2,282 yards (QB7), 14 pass TDs (QB7), and maybe most impressively, only thrown one interception (QB2). So, how high should he be ranked in your dynasty QB rankings? We've seen him ranked as high as QB7, and there is a strong case, using numbers, for him to be there. Now we have to see him keep it up throughout this season and into next year, and you'll be looking at one of the more valuable players in dynasty fantasy football.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati

Jason Wood: Burrow started the season poorly, but he has since returned to full health and again looks like one of the NFL's best players. Given his age and the strong core nucleus in Cincinnati, it's fair to consider Burrow a near-elite consolation prize for those without the elite trio of Patrick Mahomes II, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen.

Bryce Young, Carolina

Jason Wood: It's too early to give up on Young after just half a rookie season. However, the early returns are troubling, especially compared to C.J. Stroud's performance and Anthony Richardson's explosive play before his injury. Young hasn't shown much to indicate future greatness, and the Panthers are currently one of the most disappointing teams in the league. With an impatient owner and potential tension between the coaching staff and ownership, there are too many questions to view Young as a foundational piece, even in Superflex leagues.

Christian Williams: While more than half a season is needed to judge a rookie quarterback, the early-season output from Young and this Panthers offense has been poor. The weapons are worse than expected, the offensive line is one of the worst units in the NFL, and the path forward for Young looks bleak. Without a drastic improvement, the upside for Young to finish as a top-12 quarterback doesn't exist. The jury is still out, but any skepticism about Young is warranted.

Will Levis, Tennessee

Zareh Kantzabedian: The consensus may have been wrong on Will Levis' inability to succeed in the NFL. It's been only two weeks, but he's immediately given life to the Tennessee Titans' offense. Levis finished as the QB6 during his first start while making DeAndre Hopkins relevant again. Everybody's eyes are locked on C.J. Stroud for now, but Levis could redirect our gazes his way shortly.