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Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players that have sustainable production should be anchors to your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players that have unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
De'Von Achane's Hot Streak
After being a healthy scratch in week one and only five snaps in week two, De'Von Achane has gone on a two-game tear. In the past two weeks, Achane has 26 carries and 8 receptions for a total of 362 total yards of offense and six touchdowns. Since 2020, there have been six other players who have scored 6 or more touchdowns in a two-game span.
Given the fact that his teammate, Raheem Mostert, also has a six-touchdown span during the same period is a sign this is likely an outlier event.
Notably, of those players with 6 touchdowns in a two-game span, Achane ranks second in yards from scrimmage behind only Cook (478) during the two-game span. Notably, Achane's 33 touches rank lowest on the list of players. By comparison, Mostert and Kamara each had 39 touches, the second-lowest number for the players on the list.
The basis of Achane's high-end production on relatively low volume is elite efficiency. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Achane has 6.39 rushing yards over expectation per carry, the most in the NFL. The next closest runners are Breece Hall (3.24), Tyjae Spears (2.57), and Bijan Robinson (2.32). Notably, four of Achane's touchdowns came during a game against a Denver defense that is among the worst in NFL History.
Achane measured 5-foot-8.5 inches tall and weighed 188 pounds at the NFL Combine. Achane's physical stature would not suggest he is an every-down bellcow, he was a 4-star college recruit who, in his lone season as a starter at Texas A&M, produced 1298 total yards and 232 touches in 10 games.
Achane can continue in the double-digit touch role in this offense, but Achane will not continue producing in this manner. A combination of variance, scheduling, and better team schedules will cause him to regress. It's noteworthy that Achane is the second in all-purpose yards while having the lowest amount of touches of any of the running backs with six touchdowns in a two-game span since 2020.
Overall, there have been five rushing touchdowns of 40 yards or more through two weeks, and Mostert and Achane each have one. In weeks 3 and 4, Achane has an expected PPG of 17.9, which would have ranked 9th among running backs, while he produced 39.1 actual PPG. This is a massive regression candidate. Betting on this type of offensive production to continue is a losing bet.
Verdict: Achane has been spectacular the past two weeks, but his production looks more like an RB2 than an elite RB1. Use his production uptick to trade for a player that solves a problem at a premium position.
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