Week 5 resulted in some significant fantasy football injuries, including the consensus top wide receiver and everyone's top tight end. This article will help you deal with these injuries from this past week and prepare you to navigate the waiver wire.
Key:
(Position) Player | Injury | My Projection for Return to Play
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs | Inversion Ankle Sprain | Projecting Week 6 Return
Travis Kelce did briefly exit Sunday's game vs. Minnesota with a right ankle injury, but he was able to get his ankle heavily taped and able to return. By video, the mechanism was consistent with an inversion (low) ankle sprain, which is why he was likely able to return. I would expect some swelling in the days to follow and would not be shocked if he did not practice all week, as Kansas City plays on Thursday in Week 6. I still think Kelce plays on a short week, but it might be a nervous next few days for those who roster the Chiefs' TE...or those playing against him.
Tuesday Update: Kelce returned practice Tuesday. I like his chances to play Thursday.
WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings| Hamstring Injury | Projecting Week 8 Return
The big injury that everyone wants to know about is Justin Jefferson. Jefferson sustained a non-contact hamstring injury when his right leg hyperextended. There are various degrees and types.
#JustinJefferson slips on turf and suffers right hamstring strain. Return thoughts:https://t.co/4glTCeyzsT pic.twitter.com/FOh6JVpcC9
— David J. Chao - ProFootballDoc (@ProFootballDoc) October 8, 2023
There are various types/degrees of hamstring strains, but the ones where someone overstretches (similar to what Jefferson appeared to do) can sometimes result in less time missed. 80% of WRs miss at least one game with a documented hamstring injury, but the overwhelming majority miss 1-2 weeks. Week 6 seems unlikely, and depending on practice reports, Jefferson could be out for the next few games.
Tuesday Update: Jefferson's hamstring injury is more serious than originally thought. Minnesota has placed Jefferson on IR meaning he will have to miss at least the next 4 weeks, but he should be able to return afterwards.
RB Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 9 Return
In the Thursday night game at Washington, Khalil Herbert sustained a right ankle injury that, by video, looked concerning.
This is one of the most freak injuries I've ever seen from Khalil Herbert! pic.twitter.com/ZaJOi5m4Ww
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) October 6, 2023
NFL Insider, Tom Pelissero, Herbert is, in fact, dealing with a high ankle sprain. On average, this is a 3+ week injury for NFL RBs, similar to that of Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley. When it comes to fantasy points per game, on average, RBs have their points decrease by 11%, so this could be a devastating injury for Herbert managers. It's also worth mentioning that Roschon Johnson is dealing with a concussion, meaning that D'onta Foreman could be the next man up.
RB Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears | Concussion | Projecting Week 7 Return
As mentioned above, Roschon Johnson is in the concussion protocol, leaving Week 6 in doubt. Filtering out concussions by position, RBs, on average, miss 1.8 weeks, with 75% missing at least one game. The one positive is that Johnson played on Thursday, giving him an extra three days to rest up and potentially clear the concussion before Sunday in Week 6.
QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts | Shoulder Injury | Projecting Week 12 Return
While scrambling outside the pocket, Anthony Richardson was tackled and landed hard on his right (throwing) shoulder. He immediately exited and did not return. On video, it looked to be an AC Joint sprain and it early word out of Indianapolis is that the team doctors have the same concern. If you remember, this is the same injury that Derek Carr sustained two weeks ago, and he was able to return the following week without any time missed. No two injuries are the same, so we can not just dry a 1-for-1 comparison here. AC Joint sprains have various grades to determine the severity.
Ian Rapoport reported Monday that Richardson has a Grade III AC Joint sprain and that the team is getting an MRI.
Anthony Richardson - injury
— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) October 9, 2023
It’s odd to get an MRI here because an X-ray would show it pretty clearly. Curious if team is getting MRI due to concern about additional damage to shoulder.
Either way I don’t think we see Richardson again till after the Colt’s Week 11 bye. https://t.co/PYjhzFrxQ0
This is obviously not a great situation, and being conservative, I project Richardson to be out at least till the Colts return from their bye in Week 12.
QB Daniel Jones, New York Giants | Neck Injury | Projecting Week 6 Return
Daniel Jones was unable to finish the game Sunday due to a neck injury. Although neck injuries are serious, as of Sunday night, we do not have details regarding what type of neck injury Jones is dealing with. We do, however, have data from last season where Jones did have a neck strain, did not miss any time, and his fantasy production was not affected at all. Assuming Jones is dealing with a neck strain again, I think he could play in Week 6.
WR Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants | Concussion | Projecting Week 7 Return
Unfortunately, Week 5 was the week of concussions, as you will see in the players below. Compared to RBs, who average 1.8 weeks missed, WRs average 1.4 weeks missed. Could it be a coincidence? Maybe. It could also speak to the nature of the severity of the concussions each position is subjected to. Although 0.4 weeks does not seem like a long time, it shows that WRs tend to return after just one game missed, while RBs are more at risk of missing 2 games.
We need to discuss Robinson's situation because he was technically ruled out with a concussion but then returned. Per the NFLPA agreement, a player diagnosed with a concussion is not able to return to game action. So this situation is murky. Did Robinson have a concussion or not? If Robinson is in the concussion protocol, he could miss Week 6. If your fantasy team is counting on him, we should have more information Monday or Tuesday.
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals | Knee Injury | Projection TBD
James Conner was ruled out mid-game Sunday with a knee injury. As I am writing this Sunday, we do not have any specifics, and by video, it was really hard to determine what type of knee injury Conner could be dealing with. I will say if he has a meniscus injury, that could be a 2-3 week absence. MCL sprains average 4 games missed, and grouping all knee injuries for RBs also average 4 weeks missed as well. Until we know more, it does not look great for Conner, but we will have to see what news trickles out of Arizona this week.
Tuesday Update: Conner has been placed on IR. There is still no official word on the injury but I'm leaning towards meniscus or MCL, meaning it could return after his IR stint.
WR Tank Dell, Houston Texans | Concussion | Projecting Week 7 Return
Most of what was written about Wan'Dale Robinson above applies to Tank Dell here. WRs average 1.4 weeks missed with a concussion, meaning that if Dell is unable to clear the concussion protocol, he will miss Week 6 but could return in Week 7.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, New England Patriots | Concussion | Projecting Week 7 Return
WRs average 1.4 weeks missed with a concussion. As a result, Week 6 is in doubt for JuJu Smith-Schuster.
RB De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins | Knee Injury | Projection Week 11 Return
Another late edition to injury report, De'Von Achane is dealing with a knee injury. When asked by a reporter is the injury would be season ending, Miami HC Mike McDaniels responded " I don't want to speculate." Not exactly a confidence booster for Achane managers.
Similar to James Conner it's hard to speculate until we know the extent of the injury. There is a lot of speculation about the injury on X/Twitter based on the video. Most likely diagnosis would be MCL sprain. IF that was the case, average return to play timeline for NFL RBs is 4 weeks with a very small grouping (13%) only missing 1 week. The over-whelming majority of this sample falls within the 2.5-4 week mark. It could be a brief absence but managers would have to prepare for Achane to miss time.
Tuesday Update: No official word from Miami yet, but it sounds like they are planning to place Achane on IR. Everything is point to an MCL sprain for Achane. Assuming he does have a complete tear (Grade III) he should be able to return in Week 11 after the Dolphins' Week 10 bye. There are very few RBs in my database that have missed >4 weeks (~10%).
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills | Concussion | Projecting Week 7 Return
Another concussion? Yes. The Bills reported Monday that Kincaid was in the concussion protocol. For whatever reason, TEs on average miss one week longer than RBs (2.8 weeks). Both have the exact same number of players in the sample. Given this context Week 6 seems very unlikely.
