Players To Watch On New Coaching Staffs

Photo: Douglas DeFelice, USA Today Sports

The coaching carousel has stopped, and five new head coaches are in place. Who can they rely on for production on their current roster? And who could they look to target in free agency or the draft?

Denver Broncos - Sean Payton

Payton’s stamp will be all over this offense. That consists of multiple vital components. A physical running game sets up vertical passing elements. Passing backs serve as compliments in a quick, timing-based passing attack rooted in Bill Walsh’s fundamental concepts. The Broncos will expect critical players back from a hyped 2022 offense: Russell Wilson, running back Javonte Williams, wide receivers Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, and Tim Patrick, rounded out with tight end Greg Dulcich.

Scheme: Bill Walsh-based West Coast elements. Payton is a master at molding his scheme to fit personnel. The Broncos are set up well, with big-bodied wide receivers, a quarterback adept at attacking vertically, and an emerging receiving back.

The team has to add to the backfield with Javonte Williams returning from a season-ending knee injury. Chase Edmonds is the only other experienced back on the roster, but the team would save $6 million without penalty if they released him.

Shallow Sleeper: Russell Wilson, Quarterback

Wilson and Drew Brees draw natural physical comparisons as the two examples of successful short quarterbacks over the last two decades of the NFL. Stylistically, Wilson has attacked slightly deeper throughout his career, but their pocket times are similar, with Wilson averaging 2.5 seconds and Brees at 2.4. Payton will play to Wilson’s strength, using the team’s skill at wide receiver to attack vertically. Wilson’s abysmal 2022 season was a tail of two halves. The first half: 57% completion percentage and a season-long pace of 15 touchdowns. The second: 64% and 22. Wilson is a great rebound candidate.

Deep Dynasty Sleeper: Tim Patrick, Wide Receiver

The Saints always featured big-bodied receivers able to win in the seam. There is plenty of options on the Broncos between Greg Dulcich and Courtland Sutton. Patrick presents the cheapest price. He is a drop candidate on deep league waiver wires after losing the 2022 season to injury and roster space needed for rookies. If roster depth is available, stash him. Patrick could be a cut candidate with an out in his contract. But in a free agent market desperate for wide receiver talent, he would present a cheap contributor across the league. But on the Broncos roster, he could play a key role in Payton’s scheme.

Potential Free Agent Target: Kareem Hunt, Running Back

Alvin Kamara has been a top-five pass-catching option at running back his entire career. Javonte Williams has the skillset to serve in that role, but the team has to add extra options. Hunt is at the top end of the market, but the Broncos have cap space and the ability to create more. Hunt had a disappointing 2022 season, but Payton’s scheme could give him a year in the Kamara role while easing the expectations on Williams.

NFL Draft Target: Tavion Thomas, Running Back

The team is short on draft capital, possessing only six picks, with the earliest at 68. Thomas may go undrafted, but the Broncos would present an opportunity to earn a physical, short-yardage role. Thomas weighed in at the Senior Bowl at 247 pounds and drew a Footballguys Rookie Guide comp to D'Onta Foreman (get your free copy today!). His power is evident, with 21 rushing touchdowns in 2021. Thomas could keep defenses honest inside in a complementary role for Javonte Williams. The team could look to add to the position earlier in the draft and could add a pass-catching back like Kenny McIntosh if they miss that position in free agency.

Carolina Panthers - Frank Reich

Offensive Coordinator: Thomas Brown (Former Rams Associate Head Coach)

Brown's NFL coaching background is exclusive to the Rams, where Sean McVay runs some of the heaviest 11 personnel packages in the league. Meanwhile, Reich utilized two tight end sets and a power run game as offensive coordinator in Philadelphia and head coach with Indianapolis. Either way, the team must add talent to an offensive skill room that features receiver D.J. Moore and little else. The other skill talent under contract is running back Chuba Hubbard and receivers Terrace Marshall and Laviska Shenault.

Scheme: Reich has favored west coast concepts with triangle reads, which work the high/low angle routes to exploit Cover 2 and 3 schemes. Brown's experience with the Rams relies on wide zone concepts with condensed personnel groupings. Expect the Panthers to lean heavily into the run game as Brown was a former NFL running back, and Reich relied heavily on Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis. The team looks to have an inexperienced player at quarterback.

Beyond D.J. Moore, the room needs more experience and production and needs to add skill talent at every level. The Panthers sit over the cap, with three significant contracts for Moore, Taylor Moton, and Shaq Thompson, all representing cap hits of around $25 mil. Expect the team to restructure these areas and free enough space to add talent.

Shallow Sleeper: D.J. Moore, Wide Receiver

Brown's experience with Cooper Kupp and Reich's with Michael Pittman made them two of the most involved receivers in the NFL. With the absence of complementary talent, there is no reason Moore should not be similarly featured. Moore is one of the most versatile receivers in the NFL, and his career numbers paint the picture of two different usages. In 2020 and 2022, Moore was used vertically much more, with an ADOT above 13 and lower raw target totals. In 2019 and 2021, he worked more in the shorter and intermediate games, with an ADOT closer to 10. Expect his usage to diversify more, similar to what Kupp showed after starting his career as a low ADOT slot target.

Deep Dynasty Sleeper: Laviska Shenault, Wide Receiver

Shenault will be in his fourth offensive scheme in four years in the NFL. Not great. There is plenty of reason to give up on a player many expected to ascend to fantasy relevance in the summer of 2021. That said, there is still reason to believe. If Brown implements the Rams' offense variations, expect three wide receivers on the field for most plays. Shenault would have the edge over Marshall in scheme packages as a player who can work after the catch in a timing-based scheme. Reich saw him twice a year as the Colts' coach and drafted a player highly in a similar skill set in Parris Campbell. Shenault showed improvement in glimpses of 2022, raising his catch rate by about 20% to 84% from his first two seasons. The opportunity could break right as dynasty players are finally ready to move on.

Potential Free Agent Target: Josh Jacobs, Running Back

First off, Jacobs has expressed interest in staying in Las Vegas. Where Raiders coach Josh McDaniels values him will be the question. McDaniels' stay with the Patriots devalued running backs, opting for specialists. If Jacobs does hit the market, the Panthers are one of the most exciting options. Jacobs would allow Reich to build the offense around him as he develops the franchise's next quarterback. Reich coached Jonathan Taylor to the 2021 rushing crown, and Jacobs would fit as the 2022 rushing leader. Regarding opportunity, no team presents a more straightforward path for Jacobs, with Hubbard the only notable back on the roster.

NFL Draft Target: C.J. Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State

Stroud is a refined passing prospect who understands and delivers layered throws at a high level. Reich's scheme relies on these throws to attack pockets of defensive coverage. Both Reich and Brown have worked in offensive schemes that did not require high-level athleticism out of the position, and Stroud can meet their requirements. Stroud fits the mold of players like Joe Burrow and Jared Goff, who have excelled in elements of the scheme Brown has experienced. Expect the Panthers to be aggressive with the 9th pick in acquiring their future quarterback, and Stroud fits.