In 2013, Footballguy Adam Harstad wondered how many weeks into the season would pass before to-date scoring became more predictive of year-end finish than preseason ADP. His analysis of the 2012 season and several subsequent seasons concluded that the answer is roughly four games.
Harstad conducted his analysis only for skill-position players. Average draft position for individual defensive players is far less similar from source to source than that for offensive players, so parallel analysis is futile.
On the precipice of the 2023 season's bye weeks, Week 5 is nevertheless the right time to reflect on surprising producers on defense. This week's focus is a rest-of-season outlook to inform roster management, including trading decisions.
Defensive Line
Footballguy Aaron Rudnicki's preseason tiers of defensive linemen reflected consensus in analysts' ranks and drafts. Eighty percent of the top tier - Maxx Crosby, Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, and T.J. Watt - resides among the first twelve scorers at the position through four weeks.
Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers
The fifth member of the top tier has just one sack through four weeks. At this point last season, Bosa was fueling his candidacy for Defensive Player of the Year with seven. Only nine have been recorded by his team, near the bottom of the league. So, what's wrong with them?
Teams are game-planning scared and getting routed anyway. The 49ers' starters are losing reps to double-digit leads en route to a 4-0 record. Bosa has led the team in quarterback pressures for three straight weeks. Production will surely ensue.
Nick Bosa was working speed rip & running the hoop during practice in preparation for Arizona. Takes it to the game. Great leverage & bend by Bosa! #passrush #49ers
— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) October 1, 2023
first clip via @lindseylares pic.twitter.com/pRdCVhT9G9
Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto, Denver Broncos
The Broncos' starting edge rushers vaulted into the top-25 scoring edge rushers at the expense of Justin Fields and the Bears. Bonitto recorded 2.5 sacks in his first career start, while Cooper returned a fumble for a touchdown.
Both youngsters have some upside, but Cooper is a former undrafted free agent who made the team as a situational edge-setter, and Bonitto just overtook Randy Gregory on the depth chart. Denver will incur $24.3 million in dead cap to show Gregory the door.
Andrew Van Ginkel, Miami Dolphins
Andrew Van Ginkel is like a utility infielder. He produces in spots and could tease fans into wondering how he would perform as a starter. In Week 1, he played off the ball in nickel sub-packages. After rising star Jaelan Phillips got hurt, he started on the edge.
Phillips and Bradley Chubb, the regular starters, have just 1.5 sacks between them. While Phillips was productive in his one full game, he and Chubb are suffering the same leaky secondary that limited them in Miami last year. The franchise's big investments in cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey (trade) and Cam Smith (second-round pick) have yielded no starts. Justin Bethel, a 33-year-old career special teamer, is operating at nickelback while Ramsey recovers from a preseason injury.
Chubb is 11th among NFL edge defenders in pass-rush win rate but should only be considered by fantasy gamers for soft match-ups. If Phillips is healthy enough to play in Week 5, the Giants' Daniel Jones should prove a short-term remedy to the Dolphins' woes. The third edition of this column offered guidance for situational fantasy starters.
Bradley Chubb comes up BIG on 3rd & 11! #FinsUp #SuperWildCard
— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2023
📺: #MIAvsBUF on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/zCGXBeNnOK pic.twitter.com/sRe6SkRjVZ
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