Links to similar discussions on other positions:
Why Tiers?
Most fantasy owners are used to drafting off a simple ranking of players, but that can mask underlying differences that exist between players. For example, two players may be ranked right next to each other on a cheatsheet, but there could be a wide gap in the expected production for them. In that case, you would probably want to draft the higher-ranked player a full round earlier than the lower-ranked player. Similarly, there may be a large group of players with very similar projections that are bunched together on a ranking sheet. It may seem that a player ranked 10th is much more valuable than a player ranked 15th, but if only a few projected points separate them, then they are roughly equivalent in value. Rather than force yourself to pick one, it may be best to focus on another position and then come back to this position in the next round since you’re likely to get a player of nearly identical value.
Related: See Linebacker Tiers here >>>
Grouping players into distinct tiers or buckets provides additional context that allows a drafter to make more informed decisions. The projections we offer at Footballguys also help a lot in this regard, but those are still static projections that may not fully indicate the range of likely outcomes for a player. For example, two players may be projected with similar numbers but one may have significantly more upside and/or a higher floor than the other. Those types of risk vs reward decisions are inherent in any fantasy draft. While drafting the safe players will typically help you build a solid team, you often need to take some chances and hit on some players who exceed their preseason expectations to win.
Rankings are helpful in ordering players within the same position group, but tiers can help you figure out which position to take as you move through a draft. If you see a large group of linebackers that are all capable of putting up top-12 numbers but only one defensive lineman likely to put up elite numbers, it’s wise to grab the lineman and assume a quality linebacker will last until your next pick. This helps maximize the value of your pick and is a strategy that all strong fantasy players use to some extent.
How to Use the Tiers
1. These tiers are based on expected performance for the 2023 season in a balanced scoring system. While dynasty owners always need to consider long-term outcomes to some extent, the upcoming season is most critical for player value. I’ll highlight some dynasty stash options in a separate tier that you can focus on if you are less concerned about this year and want to focus on building for the future.
2. Positional classifications can differ depending on what your league-hosting website uses. For consistency, I will rely on the official Footballguys player classifications. For the most part, these should match up well with the major sources that exist online, but there could be differences. Edge rushers are typically where the most questions come from as a linebacker vs defensive end classification can have a huge impact on fantasy value.
3. Will add an asterisk (*) for some players that have added value in big-play scoring systems. There is a lot of scoring variability that exists among IDP leagues, so if your league places added value on big plays (i.e., sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, etc.), this information should help you identify some key targets within each tier.
DEFENSIVE ENDS/EDGE TIER 1: ELITE OPTIONS
• T.J. Watt, PIT*
• Myles Garrett, CLE*
• Nick Bosa, SF*
• Micah Parsons, DAL
• Maxx Crosby, LV
These are the players that stand out above the rest and are the ones to target in your draft if you want a clear edge at the position. Myles Garrett can fill up the stat sheet and has averaged nearly 1 sack per game over his 6-year career. Nick Bosa was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2022 with 18.5 sacks but is also a holdout risk while looking for a new contract. T.J. Watt is coming off an injury-shortened year but posted 22.5 sacks as the Defensive Player of the Year in 2021. Micah Parsons does a bit of everything but seems poised to become more of a full-time edge rusher this year. Maxx Crosby generates a lot of pressure and also posted 58 solo tackles a year ago.
DEFENSIVE ENDS TIER 2: VERY GOOD TARGETS
• Brian Burns, CAR*
• Danielle Hunter, MIN
• Haason Reddick, PHI*
• Matthew Judon, NE*
• Alex Highsmith, PIT
• Jaelan Phillips, MIA
• Aidan Hutchinson, DET
• Cameron Jordan, NO
• Kayvon Thibodeaux, NYG
These are the value picks among DE1 options if you are willing to wait and take a player a step below the elite. This group includes some of the best pass rushers in the league, but they carry slightly more risk and therefore come at a discount. Brian Burns continues to grow as a pass rusher but doesn’t have much help in Carolina. Haason Reddick posted 16 sacks a year ago, but playing on a dominant team limits his tackle numbers. Danielle Hunter made a successful transition to a 3-4 defense and has a relatively high floor when healthy. Matthew Judon and Cameron Jordan are reliable veterans, while there are some potential breakout candidates in Jaelan Phillips and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
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