What the Betting Market Tells Us: RB Props

Photo: Geoff Burke, USA Today Sports

Sportsbooks frequently post lines on season-long individual performances. These bets are known as prop bets. By studying the prep betting market, there is a lot to learn about trends and expected player performance. Below running back situations that have valuable information in their prop betting markets.

Quick links to all positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers

A Familiar Work Share in Green Bay

The Green Bay offense is in a state of flux after Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets. Jordan Love is the new starter, and the uncertainty in the offense is reflected in the rushing prop market. Aaron Jones has had a rushing prop of 800.5 yards at DraftKings throughout the offseason that has jumped to 850.5 in the past 10 days, while his prop of 825.5 rushing yards has held steady at FanDuel. A.J. Dillon's rushing prop has been the highest variability this month. He started the summer with a prop of 725.5 at DraftKings, which fell to 675.5, while his FanDuel prop fell from 675.5 to 600.5. Both finished with higher rushing totals last year, with Jones rushing for 1121 and Dillon rushing for 770, but the prop market is in line with their 59-41% workshare from last year.

Alexander Mattison is Falling

Alexander Mattison’s offense has featured a tumultuous prop market. He started with a rushing prop of 800.0 at FanDuel in mid-July. He jumped up to 875.5 in early August and then to 900.5 in mid-August. Since then, he has been in decline. He fell to 850.5 in mid-August before plunging to as low as 785.5 at FanDuel. Mattison signed one of the bigger deals of the offense, including 6.25 million dollars guaranteed behind only Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, and Jamaal Williams in guaranteed money. The betting markets have reacted negatively to his preseason, with Ty Chandler’s performance a likely contributing factor.