What the Betting Market Tells Us: QB Props

Photo: Jon Durr, USA Today Sports

Sportsbooks frequently post lines on season-long individual performances. These bets are known as prop bets. By studying the prep betting market, there is much to learn about trends and expected player performance. Below are seven quarterbacks who have valuable information in their prop betting markets.

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Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

With Anthony Richardson announced as the starter in Indianapolis, his prop has stabilized. FanDuel had him at 2700.5 over/under earlier this offseason before it fell to 2475.5 in early August. The prop has since rallied to 2800.5 at DraftKings and 2700.5 at FanDuel after he was named the starter and played well in the preseason. Richardson has the second lowest prop of the 30 quarterbacks with a passing yardage prop and the second lowest touchdown prop (16.5) ahead of only Desmond Ridder. Richardson does not currently have a rushing prop, but we project him to rush for 821 rushing yards in our consensus projections and finish as QB13.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud has been one of the fallers on the passing prop market. In mid-July, DraftKings had Stroud at 3400.5, which steadily fell to 3125.5 before the first preseason game. After his performance in the first preseason game, Stroud's passing prop at DraftKings fell from 3125.5 to 3050.5. His number is down more than 10% this offseason, a sign of bearishness in the market on his offseason. Our consensus projection has Stroud as QB27.

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr has been a steady faller in passing yardage prop. Carr was at 3900.5 in mid-June, which fell to 3800.5 in mid-July and down to 3700.5 at present. This is Carr's first season in New Orleans, so the drop in passing prop after initial optimism in the market is not surprising. Carr threw for 3522 yards in 2022, so the market is still optimistic about Carr even though his passing prop has fallen during the summer.