What the Betting Market Tells Us: WR Props

Photo: Junfu Han, USA Today Sports

Sportsbooks frequently post lines on season-long individual performances. These bets are known as prop bets. By studying the prep betting market, there is much to learn about trends and expected player performance. Below are six receiving corps that have valuable information in their prop betting markets.

Quick links to all positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers

Seattle Stability?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was drafted by the Seattle Seahawks in the first round to join a receiving corps of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Some initially wrote off Lockett, but the market has been durable. DK Metcalf has been steady with 900.5 receiving yards with Tyler Lockett at 800.5 receiving yards throughout the summer, both ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba's receiving props have been split throughout the offseason. DraftKings had a 725.5 receiving yardage prop, while FanDuel set the prop at 650.5. When it was announced on August 22 that Smith-Njigba would undergo wrist surgery, his prop was removed from the market, but Lockett's receiving yardage jumped from 800.5 to 875.5. Our projections have Metcalf at WR15 and Locket at WR19 while projecting Smith-Njigba to play 14.8 games and finish as WR46.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Is Rising

Amon-Ra St. Brown had an initial receiving prop of 950.5, which quickly jumped to 1000.5 receiving yards and has now jumped again to 1050.5 in mid-August. St. Brown had a big movement in his market to lead the league in yardage and receptions as well. St. Brown was initially 35/1 to lead the league in receptions, but that has dropped to 18/1. He now has the eighth-best odds to lead the league in receptions. St. Brown was clearly underpriced to begin the offseason but certainly has benefitted from Jameson Williams's suspension and disappointing training camp.

Green Bay Receiving Corps

Christian Watson has been a steady riser during the offseason. He opened with a prop of 750.5 at DraftKings, which jumped to 800.5 in mid-July. That number took another jump up to 825.5 in mid-August at Draft Kings while settling at 850.5 on FanDuel. Preseason darling Romeo Doubs has again gotten positive buzz in training camp but is a distant second, with 550.5 receiving yardage prop.