Drake London: The Case for the Sophomore Breakout

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports

Midway through the first quarter of the Falcons' Week 18 matchup against the Buccaneers, Desmond Ridder escaped the pocket, rolled to his right, and found Drake London, who was wide open in the middle of the field. Ridder was 0/2 before turning to his favorite target, and that connection ignited a career-best performance from the then-rookie wideout. London finished the day with six receptions on eight targets for 120 yards. That performance put a period on a solid, albeit unspectacular, opening act. London finished the season with 72 receptions, 866 yards, and four touchdowns. He finished tied for 25th with 117 targets. He was the WR43 in points per game but finished inside the top 30 in overall positional scoring. Despite the mediocrity and the Falcons' run-first tendencies, London is poised for a massive sophomore campaign. With Desmond Ridder slated as the full-time starter, the natural progression of year-two wideouts, and the lack of challenging target competition, London could finish as a top-20 wide receiver in 2023.

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The Desmond Ridder Sample

Atlanta's quarterback play in 2022 was a rollercoaster, but more like the rides in the kids' area. Marcus Mariota completed just 61.3% of his passes (27th among qualifying passers), had a Bad Throw % of 22.5%, and averaged 170.7 passing yards per game. He averaged 14 completions per game, and the passing offense was often stagnant when he was under center.

Desmond Ridder wasn't spectacular over his four-game sample, but the offense opened up. Ridder completed 18 balls per game, averaged 177 yards, and took care of the football. His On Target % was 5%, and his Bad Throw % was 4.3% better than Mariota. Mariota was more efficient on a per-attempt basis, but the coaching staff instilled confidence in their rookie quarterback; enough to let him throw the football more. And when he did, London was his favorite target.

In Ridder's four starts to conclude 2022, Drake London accumulated 36 targets for an average of 9.0 per game. That number ranked 11th over that timeframe and would've ranked 7th throughout an entire season. Over that span, London hauled in 69.4% of those targets, ranking fourth in the NFL ahead of names like Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. His target share was 33.0%. 38% of his total receiving yards (333) and 35% of his total receptions (25) came in the final four weeks. Furthermore, during that timeframe, Drake London was the WR12. In points per game, he was WR16.

Kyle Pitts's absence certainly contributed to London's emergence during that time. Still, the Falcons treated London as the No. 1 - or 1A - option even when he was healthy. The bottom line: without Ridder under center, the Falcons treated London like an elite option on a per-attempt basis. With Ridder under center, the Falcons treated London like an elite No. 1 receiver without contingencies.

The Second-Year Leap

Recent trends suggest that wide receivers traditionally see a substantial increase in production in their sophomore campaign. Since 2014, first-round wide receivers who saw more than ten targets in their rookie or sophomore campaigns (to remove egregious injury outliers) earned the following in their sophomore season:

• 21.77% more targets
• 29.73% more receptions
• 45.53% more yards
• 47.40% more fantasy points

66.67% of wideouts experienced an increase in targets, 59.26% experienced an increase in receptions, 74.07% experienced a rise in yards, and 59.26% saw a bump in fantasy points. Just seven players from the 27 who qualified were selected inside the Top 10 of the NFL Draft. Here's how their performance changed in Year 2: