Thursday Showdown Week 4

Photo: Junfu Han, USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and FLEX spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique FLEX builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

The Packers are 2-1, yet divisional underdogs at Lambeau, which is noteworthy. Clearly, Vegas isn't impressed with Jordan Love's successful yet shaky start to the year. With a ho-hum total of 45.5, there isn't a ton of scoring upside in play here. Bettors expect the Lions to grind out a close win – but they also note that the Lions look like the slightly better neutral-field team.

Injury Roundup

Aaron Jones practiced on a limited basis this week and should return from his two-game absence. Teammate Christian Watson, however, has yet to be cleared to make his season debut. Across the field, Detroit should get lead runner David Montgomery back tonight.

Captain Consideration

• David Montgomery (if active)
• Aaron Jones (if active)
• Sam LaPorta
• Romeo Doubs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Detroit Lions

Quarterback

Jared Goff (FLEX only)

Goff isn't a play so much due to his arm. Only the Falcons and Cardinals have thrown the ball less vs. expectation than Goff and the Lions, who would much to pound the ball and throw quick slants all evening. But the better (and favored) of the two quarterbacks is always in play, even if the upside doesn't make you drool.