Underdog Pick 'Em Week 21

Photo: Junfu Han, USA Today Sports

Underdog’s Fantasy Pick ‘Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing 'Higher' or 'Lower' on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:

• Two picks = 3X
• Three picks = 6X
• Four picks = 10X
• Five picks = 20X

In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.

WEEK 20 REVIEW

• Overall Picks (4-2, 124-101-2 on the season)
• Overall Units (+5.5, +27.5 Units on the season)

(1-2, -1 Unit) Texans-Ravens 7.5X Lamar Jackson (1.5) threw two touchdown passes. However, C.J. Stroud (1.5) was unable to throw any touchdowns against the stifling Ravens defense. Zay Flowers (47.5) came up a bit short of his receiving yardage prop with 41 yards.

(3-0, +6.5 Units) Buccaneers-Lions 7.5X We felt both teams would have a lot of success through the air, and that is how things played out. Jahmyr Gibbs (3.0 receptions) had four catches for 40 yards. Cade Otton (3.0 receptions) had five catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. Mike Evans (69.5 receiving yards) had eight catches for 147 yards and a touchdown.

Week 21 Picks

CHIEFS-RAVENS 12X

Patrick Mahomes II

Lower than 5.0 Rushing Attempts

• The Ravens defense faced the second-fewest rushing attempts by opposing quarterbacks this season. Only one quarterback ran the ball more than four times in any game against the Ravens this season.
• In his last 11 playoff games, Mahomes had more than five carries just three times.
• Mahomes has averaged 2.7 carries per game against Baltimore in his career.

Lamar Jackson

Higher than 64.5 Rushing Yards

• Jackson has rushed for 100-plus yards in three of his last four playoff games.

This is the kind of thing that makes Lamar Jackson unbeatable. You can have the perfect coverage…..

and he still does this: #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/EGvnja9KRU

— Nic Mason (@British_Raven19) January 25, 2024

• He has averaged 75.3 rushing yards per game in four career matchups against Kansas City.
• The Chiefs defense has faced the fourth-most rushing attempts from opposing quarterbacks.
• In three playoff matchups against Josh Allen, the Chiefs allowed 88, 68, and 72 rushing yards.

Mark Andrews

Higher than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

• Andrews has practiced in full the entire week and is set to make his return to the Ravens starting lineup. He should instantly return to being the top target in the Ravens passing offense.

Lamar Jackson: Would definitely mean a lot to get Mark Andrews back this week. https://t.co/jvIO0vOxGA

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) January 24, 2024

• In his nine full games this season, Andrews scored six touchdowns. We are getting a 2X boost here that makes rolling the dice on an Andrews touchdown worth putting some chips on.