IDP The Guru and the Godfather: Week 7

John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

As hard as it is to believe, the 2024 IDP regular season is hitting the halfway point. As not hard as it is to believe, things have been, um, a tad um, unpredictable.

However, the more weeks we get under our belt, the more some things stabilize in IDP leagues. We get a feeling for whose Shine will stay and whose will get eaten by psychic vampire thingies.

Still time for a Halloween reference or two.

There's some dissent over who gets to be Stephen King and who's John Carpenter, but The Guru and The Godfather are back once again to break down Week 7—starting with some players managers should have on their target list.

IDP Bargain Bin

With the IDP regular season hitting the halfway point, many IDP managers need to make a move—need to add a player who will have the big rest of the season they so badly need, whether it's a “Buy Low” trade target or someone on the wire.

Give the good folks one player at each position (DL/LB/DB) who will be a second-half savior.

GURU: Derick Hall of the Seattle Seahawks took a step back versus the 49ers in Week 6, but the second-year pro has been on a roll. After going 1-2-1 over the first two weeks combined, he blew up for 10-5-4 and a pair of forced fumbles in the three games that followed. There are a couple of unfavorable matchups on the schedule, including Buffalo in Week 8 and a rematch with San Francisco in Week 11, but there are some juicy ones in there as well. I think he is the real deal and expect a strong second half from him.

Trevin Wallace was drafted to be the future at linebacker for the Panthers. With Shaq Thompson gone, the future is now. All the guy has done in his two starts to date is pile up 24 combined stops and a pair of turnovers. The competition for tackles will get a bit tougher when Josey Jewell returns but a bad Carolina team can easily support two productive linebackers.

The second-half trajectory changed for Tre'von Moehrig when the team placed Marcus Epps on season-ending IR. Isaiah Pola-Mao worked mostly at strong safety in his first start. The Raiders adjusted the following week, moving him to the center field role as the deep safety and bringing Moehrig closer to the line in more of a run-support, strong safety role. Since the role swap, Moehrig has come alive on the stat sheet, averaging almost 12 fantasy points per game.

GODFATHER: It has been a rough start to the season for Chicago Bears edge rusher Montez Sweat—just 11 tackles and 2.5 sacks, numbers that rank him outside the top 50 defensive linemen. But it's a streaky position, and Sweat is just too good a player on too good a defense for the near-misses to start turning into hits.

Since returning from a pectoral strain, Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard hasn't done a lot statistically—just five solos over the past two games combined. But this isn't the time to panic on Bernard. It's the time to target him. Bernard is a legitimate top-10 fantasy linebacker who looked the part in the season-opener. If he posts a dud against the lowly Titans, his asking price might dip even more.

Just about any disappointing defensive back might rebound—it's what makes the position so much fun. And by fun, I mean maddening. But I'll go completely off the map here with Seattle safety K'Von Wallace. Julian Love managers aren't going to be happy about it, but the Rayshawn Jenkins injury could force Seattle to play Love deep more—a role he's more than capable of playing. That leaves box snaps for Wallace, and we've seen the gonzo numbers Love has been posting in that gig.

Week 7 DL Breakdown

Now we have to deal with defensive linemen. Which defensive lineman is going to be this week's Will Anderson Jr. and explode with a week-winning score? Who will go all Krispy Kreme and throw up a doughnut?

For the record, Krispy Kreme is awesome. But Jolly Pirate is better.

GURU: Here is a Cheese Danish (my favorite) for our readers in tackle-required formats. Kobie Turner of the Los Angeles Rams is not Aaron Donald, but we may not be able to tell that by looking at his stats when the end of the season gets here. If he is an option, get him into your lineup this week versus the Raiders. Interior linemen tend to put up quality tackle totals with this matchup, and Las Vegas has allowed at least half a sack to defensive tackles in four of six games. Turner had ten last season. After racking up 5-1-2 with a forced fumble last week, I can see him putting up two sacks in back-to-back weeks here.

Harold Landry III of the Tennessee Titans is probably too consistent in the tackle columns to throw up a full doughnut, so I'll call it a doughnut hole. The Bills have given up eight sacks on the season, shutting out the edge position in four of six games. I went into the Monday night game needing five points from Will McDonald IV last week and was sweating bullets in fear that I would need a Krispy Cream to drown my sorrows. Fortunately, he came through for me late in the contest. I'd hate for anyone else to go through that, especially if they have other good options on the bench, which I did not.

GODFATHER: I have mentioned him in every IDP column I have written here at Footballguys this week, so I might as well keep banging the drum. Trey Hendrickson of the Cincinnati Bengals is a must-start in Week 7, but batterymate Sam Hubbard should be in lineups as well. Hubbard isn't the pass-rusher that Hendrickson is, but the Browns hand out sacks like swag at a daytime talk show. Cleveland's 31 sacks allowed is eight more than any other team in the league.

Landry was my IDP Dud of the Week for Week 7, so the Guru and I are in lockstep with him. It's also a good week to sit Matthew Judon, although every week is beginning to become a good week to do that. Rather than inject some pop into Atlanta's non-existent pass rush, the Falcons appear to have made Judon forget how to sack quarterbacks. The entire team has five, and six players have more by themselves.

State of the LB Nation: Week 7

We can't all roster Fred Warner of the 49ers or Bobby Wagner of the Commanders. What linebacker will post a Wagner-esque bushel of tackles this week? Who will pull an Okereke (We don't want to talk about it.) and vanish from the box score in Week 7?

GURU: Ivan Pace Jr. of the Vikings is set to be your game-winner this week. I contemplated making him my answer to Question 1, but we don't know enough about the toe injury expected to keep Blake Cashman in street clothes this weekend. It is no secret how productive Pace is when he plays full-time. Factor in a strong matchup with the Lions, and he's my pick for the LB! in Week 7.

It's been a few weeks since I went to this matchup for my slacker of the week projection, so I'll remind everyone how poor of a matchup the Rams are for middle linebackers. I could go through all the good players that have disappointed with this matchup. To keep it simple and to the point, Fred Warner was 1-3-0 against them. That doesn't bode well for Robert Spillane of the Las Vegas Raiders.

GODFATHER: I'm going to circle back to a player Norton already mentioned: Carolina Panthers linebacker Trevin Wallace. He's not just a player IDP managers should target—he should be in lineups when the Panthers face the Washington Commanders in Week 7.

The Commanders have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to linebackers. The Panthers defense can't get off the field. Washington will be playing from ahead against one of the NFL's worst run defenses. Can I stop now?

It's a bit odd, given they have Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier on the roster, but no team in the league has given up fewer fantasy points per game to linebackers this season than the Atlanta Falcons. There's been a big enough sample size for that to concern me with Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson of the Seattle Seahawks—especially since the Seahawks should be able to make this another close scrape one way or the other.

The DB Merry-Go-Round

Defensive backs in 2024 have been, well, defensive backs. Who will be the latest surprise star to blow up in Week 7? What big-name DB is most likely to, well, just blow?

GURU: I've talked about Jeremy Chinn of the Commanders too many times already, but when I scan through matchups or situations worth talking about, he keeps standing out. He's put up seven solo stops in two of the last three games with an average of over eleven fantasy points over the last three weeks.

The Panthers are a middle-of-the-road matchup for safeties in general, but I love to play on the extra incentive that comes with a good player facing a former employer. Especially when the relationship ends badly, as it did when Chinn was discarded by the Panthers. You can bet he circled this game on the calendar when the schedule came out.

Damar Hamlin has been a pleasant surprise for the Buffalo Bills and IDP managers alike. When he was named starter at the beginning of the season, it felt like a case of the team not having the resources to bring in a “better” player, and simply counting on Hamlin as someone to get them bye for now. Six weeks into the season, he looks every bit like a quality NFL starter.

With double-digit points in four of the last five games, a lot of us have turned to Hamlin for our teams as well. However, if you have other quality options, think hard about playing them this week. Only the Chargers are allowing fewer points to safeties than Tennessee.

GODFATHER: One of Sunday's biggest games takes place in San Francisco, where the 49ers will host the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of Super Bowl LVIII. There isn't a team in the league allowing more fantasy points per game to safeties than the Niners, and Chiefs safety Justin Reid has shown the ability in the past to post a big line when the matchup's right.

The Guru mentioned that the Titans and Chargers are where joy goes to die so far this season, where fantasy points for defensive backs are concerned. Fantasy managers of Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker probably won't be happy this week, but Baker is one of maybe five defensive backs The Godfather would start regardless of matchup. Jalen Thompson would have a higher profile if he hadn't spent his career in Baker's shadow, but Thompson ain't on that list. He's a “pass” in Week 7.

Sleeper Alert

Grab a pillow and throw on a Snuggie (A surprisingly popular gift—people won't admit they like ‘em, but they do.) because it's sleeper time. One defensive lineman, linebacker, and defensive back few expect to be a difference-maker who is just that in Week 7.

Go.

GURU: Azeez Ojulari of the New York Giants is another guy I considered for my answer to Question 1. Ultimately, I decided to see more before committing to him that strongly. That said, there are a lot of things to like this week.

The Eagles are not a stellar matchup, but they are giving up nearly three sacks a week. On the other hand, the Giants defense is leading the league with an average of four and a half per game. New York uses a three-man rotation on the edge. Ojulari was the third until Kayvon Thibodeaux landed on IR last week. He logged 77% of the snaps versus the Bengals and contributed a pair of sacks in the process. This is a talented player who had eight sacks as a rookie in 2021 before his career was sidetracked by injuries. Last week was not a fluke.  

Azeez Al-Shaair of the Houston Texans left last week's game with a knee injury. Neville Hewitt came on to record eight total stops on less than 60% of the snaps against a Patriots offense that is a mediocre matchup for linebackers. Al-Shaair is not expected to miss much time and has not yet been ruled out for week seven, but he had not practiced as of Thursday and is heavily on the doubtful side of questionable.

If he takes a week off, snatch up Hewitt and play him against a Packers team that helped Zack Baun go 11-4-2, E.J. Speed 8-3, Zaire Franklin 5-5, Ernest Jones IV 10-3, Kenneth Murray Jr. 5-3-2, Blake Cashman 6-5, and Krys Barnes 8-1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Tykee Smith has been on the field for less than 70% of the snaps in four of six games and more than 80% once (99% in week 5). That hasn't stopped him from recording double-digit points three times, including more than 37 over the last two weeks.

With all the injuries, Tampa Bay has been forced to shuffle their secondary often. Smith has worked at both safety spots and in the nickel role. It's unclear exactly how he will be used versus a Ravens team that is a mediocre matchup for defensive backs, but it's a fairly safe bet he will have a big role.

GODFATHER: Not only does he jack my calls, but he's wordy while he does it. The Guru is a great guy, but he's also a friend.

A.J. Epenesa of the Buffalo Bills may never have the breakout I once expected. He's a good edge-setter and an OK pass-rusher, but his ceiling appears to be what it is—a poor man's Sam Hubbard. That doesn't mean he isn't a capable NFL starter, though, and it also doesn't mean he can't take advantage of an increased workload and a favorable matchup. Did last week against the Jets. Will this week against the Titans.

New York Giants linebacker Micah McFadden presents a quandary for IDP managers. On one hand, he's not a true three-down linebacker—his snap share usually hovers in the 70-75 percent range. On the other hand, he tends to be efficient on a per-snap basis—he quietly ranks just outside the top 25 fantasy linebackers for the year.

McFadden is a player who should be trusted when that efficiency meets a top-10 IDP matchup. Like, say, this week against former teammate Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles.

That I'm listing Jalen Pitre as a “Sleeper” is a tad depressing given how many shares I drafted (Many of which have already been relegated to the “oops” pile.), but the cold truth is that the numbers haven't been there in his new role as a hybrid safety/slot defender. But the Packers spread the ball around as well as any team in the league, and Green Bay has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to safeties. It's Pitre week!

Or not.

John Norton (The Guru) and Gary Davenport (The Godfather of IDP) have over 45 combined years of IDP experience. Follow John on Twitter (still not calling it X, so there) at @JohnPNorton and Gary at @IDPSharks.