Running Back Tier, Targets, and Players to Avoid

Once upon a time, running backs ruled fantasy football. The name of the game was "Stud RB" and the first round was really just "which running back are you going to get". PPR scoring rose out of the predictability this created in fantasy drafts, but along the way, Bill Belichick among others ushered in the age of the running back committee.

RELATED: See Sigmund's Quarterbacks Tiers here >>>
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A good fantasy RB1 is hard to find, so the few candidates left are as coveted as ever, but after that, the value drops off steeper than it does at other positions. In recent years, there has been an overreaction to the running back "dead zone" - the area occupied by backs who are likely to lead their team in touches but give us hesitation for various reasons.

This used to be a 4th- to 5th-round tier, but this year, it's a 6th- to 8th-round tier. That means the 5th-round backs are more like 3rd-round backs, and overall, there's a discount on running backs throughout your draft. There should be at least one back going in the RB18-RB30 range, which is a screaming value to you. This is also a deep and fun rookie running back class. You should take at least one as part of your endgame. Happy drafting!

The King

Christian McCaffrey, SF

Target at ADP: McCaffrey

The calf injury is a little concerning, but McCaffrey has been durable in recent years and he’s in an ideal situation. It’s reasonable to take CeeDee Lamb or Tyreek Hill over him, and Breece Hall could contend for RB1 overall this year, but McCaffrey’s scoring advantage in PPR leagues over the RB pack is the most valuable edge in fantasy.

Contenders for the Crown

Breece Hall, NYJ
Bijan Robinson, ATL

Consider at ADP: Hall, Robinson

There’s not much debate about this tier within running back rankings, but if you draw a mid-first-round pick, you need to know how you feel about this duo vs. a large group of elite wide receivers. 

Hall’s late-season scoring was in McCaffrey’s neighborhood last year. The offensive line and quarterback play will be better; the only question is how much. He’s in play as high as #3.

Robinson is going to be in a much, much better offense and could take off this year. Tyler Allgeier isn’t a mere backup and could steal some short-yardage touchdowns, so Robinson might not be compelling unless your elite WR1 tier has dried up.

High-Ceiling RB1

Saquon Barkley, PHI
Jonathan Taylor, IND
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET
De’Von Achane, MIA

Target at ADP: Achane
Consider at ADP: Barkley, Taylor, Gibbs

This group becomes a consideration around the 1-2 turn and throughout the second round. There are flaws that drop them out of the top 10, but the confluence of talent and quality of offense is undeniable.

Barkley is in the best offense of his career and could finally fulfill his considerable potential. Jalen Hurts will take too many touchdowns for Barkley to be a league winner, but the passing game involvement could be the best we’ve seen since his rookie year.

Taylor is healthier than he was last year and Anthony Richardson should keep run defenses honest. Shane Steichen is also a plus. We were debating Taylor and McCaffrey at the top of drafts two years ago.

Gibbs was at the head of this tier until his hamstring injury. It definitely casts a shadow on his outlook, but he’s still worth considering in the second because of his explosive play potential, passing game usage, and high quality offense.

Achane is very similar to Gibbs but has demonstrated even more big play ability. The promise of more passing game involvement could push Achane to the fantasy stratosphere with good health.

High-Floor RB1

Derrick Henry, BAL
Kyren Williams, LAR
Isiah Pacheco, KC
Travis Etienne, JAX

Target at ADP: Henry
Consider at ADP: Williams, Pacheco
Avoid at ADP: Etienne

This group lacks the ceiling of the top seven, but their high floors set them apart as RB1s. If you want one, you’ll have to use a third-round pick.

Henry is exciting to draft this year. We haven’t seen him paired up with a quarterback of Lamar Jackson’s caliber. 20+ touchdowns is well within the range of outcomes here.

Williams should be more durable this year with his workload reduced by Blake Corum, and he’s in a good offense. Could Corum present a more attractive option in short yardage and just as a runner overall? Possibly.

Pacheco is set to have his largest role yet, and in a Chiefs offense that is looking to force defenses to play on their heels. He just needs to stay healthy and another step forward for fantasy will come.