The Top 10: Week 2

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 2 Matt Waldman Published 09/10/2024

The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  • Marvin Harrison, Jr. is as much of a problem with his production as Kyler Murray. Bench Harrison for now.
  • Isaiah Likely merits an investment as a free agent thanks to how he was targeted. 
  • Mark Andrews is not washed up. He'll get his. Proclamations of players losing their explosion are mostly naive arrogance. 
  • Saquon Barkley is better than ever and worth every bit of his draft-day investment, if not more. 
  • Chiefs' DL Chris Jones and teammates confused the Ravens' OL. Don't overreact with Baltimore fantasy options. 
  • Kirk Cousins can't drive off his front foot to generate intermediate velocity on timing routes, and Atlanta knows it. Monitor Cousins closely for the next 3-5 weeks. Michael Penix Jr. might play this year. 
  • Baker Mayfield has improved since Cleveland dumped him. He has the freedom and improved pocket management skills to be a productive field general. Buy.
  • Dontayvion Wicks will be worth your attention at some point this year. Monitor from afar and swoop in as appropriate.
  • Aaron Rodgers did a great job finding matchups for Allen Lazard when they were in Green Bay. Lazard has rebounded in camp this year and could rebound this season.
  • 10 Things that could happen this year based on what I saw on film this week. 

1. Bench: Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Kyler Murray has supported one top-10 fantasy asset in the passing game during his career. One. The next best outputs by a receiver working with Murray? Christian Kirk was WR26 and Larry Fitzgerald was WR35.

Murray is a good fantasy points producer. He's not a good quarterback. 

None of these facets of Murray's quarterbacking have improved dramatically during his NFL career: 

  • Route miscommunications with receivers.
  • Bailing pressure to one side and cutting off his options.
  • Failing to climb unless forced and creating pressure that wasn't there. 
  • A poor pocket clock
  • Missing pre-snap opportunities to make productive adjustments. 

Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison miscommunication. pic.twitter.com/pxIvCelgfq

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 8, 2024

Until Murray matures and becomes a better team quarterback than a "me" quarterback, anticipate Harrison dramatically underperforming to his top-15 average draft position this year. Bench Harrison if your lineups require only 2-3 receivers.

He might eventually be worth a WR3 spot, but wait for proof. Don't dwell on your sunk costs. 

2. Isaiah Likely Merits An Investment

The bulk of Likely's film didn't match the buzz coming from it if looking simply at his talent. The Chiefs took away Mark Andrews and gave Lamar Jackson Likely. 

It doesn't matter that the Chiefs gave Jackson Likely this week. What matters is the potential for repeatable fantasy value and the gravity of what those plays tell us as fantasy GMs. 

Lamar Jackson targeted Likely on two potential game-winning targets -- one of them after Likely left the field for a play after an injury and was only a toe's width from victory -- that reinforces how much he trusts Likely. 

The pair also showed advanced rapport on a scramble drill. 

Baltimore used a lot of 22 and 12-personnel sets (two tight ends with 1 or 2 running backs) last week. Expect that to continue. At the same time...

3. Mark Andrews Will Get His

Andrews is not "washed." He was gassed at the end of the game. So was the Chiefs defense. 

I've been scouting football players for 21 years. Discerning whether a player has lost something athletically is far more difficult than the ease I hear people make these proclamations. 

Injuries are often a factor. So are technical and conceptual considerations as well as the game scenarios where people are judging these players. 

I've asked experienced NFL scouts and trainers of pros if they can tell whether a player is "washed," and if they could, I'd like tips. 

They all laughed or said it was the hardest thing to do. 

Look at the film above of Andrews drawing 2-4 Chiefs defenders on several passes that freed up Isaiah Likely. This won't happen all season. We may even see teams give that treatment to Likely at some point. 

4. Saquon Barkley Isn't Washed; He's Better Than Ever

I've been selling tickets to the Saquon Barkley Vengeance Tour on the Feel It or F-It Podcast with Bob Harris since Barkley landed in Philadelphia. Barkley killed it on opening night. 

Barkley is a much better inside runner than D'Andre Swift and Miles Sanders were. He's a better receiver, too. The Eagles' skill talent is a pick-your-poison scenario. Barkley will be a top-5 RB this year. Likely top-3.

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