Welcome to Week 11 of the 2025 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- WR Rebound Candidates
- Can These WRs Keep It Going?
- Reserves with League-Altering Upside
- Controversial Stances
Let's roll...
Matt Waldman: These receivers have performed well above their overall ranking for the past five weeks.
- Alec Pierce WR37 overall, WR14 since Week 6.
- Tez Johnson WR51 overall, WR19 since Week 6.
- Jameson Williams WR34 overall, WR17 since Week 6.
Pick the one most likely to remain hot.
Jeff Haseley: Personally, I don't love any of these receivers to stay hot, but if I had to choose one, I would pick Alec Pierce. When deciding on a receiver for my lineup, I consider how that receiver was used in comparison to others on the team.
Was there a particular reason why that player has performed well recently? Is it sustainable? Is his play affected by injuries? The matchup?
Looking at Pierce, he averages a 19 percent team target share on the season, and his last three weeks have been 31 percent, 18 percent, and 27 percent. These percentages are also similar to those of Michael Pittman Jr. Can both receivers be sustainable in the Colts' offense?
Indianapolis is scoring 32.1 points per game. I would be more on board with Pierce if he were scoring more, but he has just one touchdown in eight games played this season. The opportunities may be there, but the consistent scoring threat isn't.
Pierce is surviving on long catches. He nearly has 21 yards per catch this season with an 18-yard per catch career average. Without a consistent scoring element to his game, I see where that could be problematic for long-term success.
Meng Song: I'd expect most to gravitate toward Jameson Williams based on the efficiency of the Lions' offense overall, but I think Alec Pierce may actually be the most likely to remain hot rest-of-season. Both Williams and Tez Johnson's recent stretch of production since Week 6 has been the result of likely unsustainable touchdown rates.
Williams has 3 touchdowns on 16 receptions. Johnson has 4 touchdowns on 14 receptions. In contrast, Pierce has produced in fantasy despite having found the end zone just once in his last 19 receptions.
It's true that Dan Campbell calling plays this past week allowed Williams to see more intermediate targets, but not every game will be against an ailing Commanders defense. On top of that, while the Lions' offense as a whole will continue putting up points, they have so many talented skill-position players that touchdowns will naturally be spread out week-to-week.
While Johnson remains the de facto No. 2 wide receiver in Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, his touchdown rate is due to regress. This is also true for Williams, but Johnson is on a lower-scoring offense overall.
This brings us to Pierce. Daniel Jones' resurgence in 2025 has been greatly assisted by the red-hot start to the season from Jonathan Taylor. With defenses needing to account for the dangerous Taylor near the line of scrimmage, Jones has been able to attack deep through the air with less resistance. Thus far, Jones' 8.5 air yards per attempt ranks 8th among quarterbacks, and his 43 percent deep ball completion rate ranks 10th.
Michael Pittman Jr has had higher target volume in years past, but his average depth of target (aDOT) has never exceeded 11.1 yards in any given season. On the other hand, Pierce led all wide receivers in aDOT last season and ranked ninth in aDOT in 2023.
Pierce's skill set as a deep threat has allowed him to connect with Jones this year. Pierce's 20.7-yard aDOT ranks second among wide receivers thus far, and his 20.9 yards per reception leads the NFL!
Pittman will continue to be involved as the No. 1 receiver for the Colts, but it's only a matter of time before a few more of these deep shots to Pierce lead to touchdowns.