Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Matchup Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 2.
Upper Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them strong candidates for potential shootouts. The Jaguars stand out as a team to target in Week 2 GPPs. Travis Etienne Jr. was fantastic in Week 1 and could thrive against a Bengals defense that gave up eight receptions to Dylan Sampson last week.
Upper Right: Teams in this quadrant are favored and projected to score above average, making them prime targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts here often set up well for running backs. The Ravens are the week's heaviest favorite, and Derrick Henry racked up 161 total yards and two touchdowns in his last meeting against Cleveland.
Bottom Right: These teams are favored but expected to score below average. Running backs can still be viable due to positive game scripts, but the passing games are riskier given the low totals. For the second-straight week, the Steelers find themselves favored in a game with a low total. Jaylen Warren is potentially interesting. He may lose fewer snaps to Kenneth Gainwell if the Steelers jump out to an early lead.
Bottom Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs and projected to score below average, so it's best to limit exposure to only players you have strong conviction about. There are a huge number of teams that are at least five-point dogs this week. Deciding how to handle players from these teams will be a key decision point in Week 2.
DraftKings
For the Week 2 First Look, we'll keep things straightforward by breaking down each position group on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Using the early-week Footballguys consensus projections, we'll highlight the top point-per-dollar options at every spot. Let's start with DraftKings.
Quarterback
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Josh Allen didn't post big yardage totals in either matchup with the Jets last season, but he did throw four touchdown passes and add two rushing scores across those games. He projects as one of the safer plays on the slate.
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Lamar Jackson has struggled to put up strong numbers against Cleveland in recent years, making him tough to trust in cash games. He's always viable in tournaments given his ceiling.
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The vibes in Miami could not be much worse, making this a team to target against in DFS until further notice. Drake Maye attempted 46 passes and added four carries last week, operating as the clear engine of the Patriots offense. He looks like the best salary-saving option at the position.
Running Back
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Christian McCaffrey showed no signs of a reduced workload after the calf injury scare, handling 22 carries and 10 targets in Week 1. With George Kittle sidelined and the receiving corps banged up, his rushing efficiency may take a hit, but he remains a strong bet for close to double-digit targets again in Week 2.
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Chase Brown may be the league's best example of a workhorse back, taking all 21 running back carries and three of five targets in Week 1. With Vegas projecting the Bengals for 26 points, he's set up well for a bounce-back spot.
- Travis Etienne Jr. had 16 carries and three targets last week. With Tank Bigsby traded to the Eagles, he could take an even more commanding share of the backfield touches in a Week 2 matchup with shootout potential.