Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Matchup Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 6.
Upper Left: These teams are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate average, making them strong candidates for potential shootouts. The Panthers–Cowboys matchup has the highest total on the slate and should be competitive, making it an ideal game to stack. One of the biggest injury situations to monitor this week is the status of Chuba Hubbard. With Hubbard out last week, Rico Dowdle racked up 237 total yards, just three shy of the all-time franchise record. Panthers head coach Dave Canales was non-committal on Hubbard’s status on Tuesday. If Hubbard sits, Dowdle is a fantastic play against his former team. In addition to Dowdle, this is a great spot for Tetairoa McMillan against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Upper Right: These teams are favored and projected to score above average, making them strong plays for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts here often favor running backs. For the second straight week, the Bengals’ opponent has the highest team total on the slate. The Packers are two-touchdown home favorites, and it’s hard to bet against Josh Jacobs in this spot given his pricing. The Colts are again big favorites with a healthy team total (27.0), setting up Jonathan Taylor to once again be among the most popular plays on the main slate.
Bottom Right: Teams in this quadrant are favored but projected to score below average. Running backs can still benefit from positive game scripts, but passing games carry risk with low totals. Another key injury situation to monitor is Jaylen Warren. He appears likely to return, but it remains unclear whether he’ll step right back into the workhorse role he held before the injury.
Bottom Left: Teams here are underdogs and projected to score below average. Exposure should be limited to players you have a strong conviction about. It’s a tough spot for Quinshon Judkins, as the Browns have a team total of just 16.0. Still, Judkins has produced strong numbers in three straight weeks despite the team’s offensive struggles.
DraftKings
Let's take a look at the top options on DraftKings according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").
Quarterback
-
Bryce Young faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed an NFL-high 28.7 DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Given the game environment, strong stacking options, and his bargain salary, he should be one of the most popular quarterback plays this week. However, he has topped 200 passing yards only once all season and has rushed for fewer than 10 yards in four of five games.
-
Drake Maye is an interesting tournament option because his recent fantasy production doesn’t reflect how well he’s playing. He scored just 12.1 DraftKings points against Buffalo on Sunday night but looked sharp throughout. The Saints haven’t allowed a huge fantasy performance to any quarterback this season, yet every passer they’ve faced has thrown for at least two touchdowns. They’ve also given up 100 rushing yards and a score on the ground over the past two weeks.