NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. Success in these contests doesn't come from blindly following median projections, but from creating leverage and building unique rosters. Fading the most popular plays can be risky, yet the biggest edges usually come from identifying the right low-rostered pivots and pairing them creatively with the slate's juggernauts.
With both DraftKings and FanDuel now using similar formats — a multiplier slot (Captain/MVP) that costs 1.5× salary and earns 1.5× points — the nuances between sites come down to scoring systems and contest dynamics. DraftKings' full PPR scoring and larger prize pools reward a slightly different decision-making process than FanDuel's half-PPR and softer fields, but the core principles of Showdown roster construction apply across both.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash builds, median projections remain your best guide. For head-to-head contests, consider projections as well, but when two players have similar projections, side with the lower-rostered option.
Game Scripting and Roster Construction
Amazon's Thursday Night Football gives us two desperate teams with just enough firepower to make it fun. The Miami Dolphins (2-6) host the Baltimore Ravens (2-5) at Hard Rock Stadium in what feels like a must-win for Miami and, frankly, for Mike McDonald, whose seat is about as warm as it gets in late October in South Florida. The timing could not be worse for him: Baltimore finally gets Lamar Jackson back after he missed the entire month of October with a hamstring injury, which means the Ravens show up healthier than they've been all season and still very much alive in an AFC North that nobody has grabbed yet. Pittsburgh is sitting at 4-3 right now, which pretty much tells you nobody has taken control of that division.
This game tilts heavily toward Baltimore, and the books see it the same way with a 29-21 projection in their favor. That number matters for Showdown because it signals points, and plenty of them. Neither defense has offered resistance this year. Miami is 27th in points allowed per game (26.9), and Baltimore is somehow worse at 30.0, sitting 30th. When both defenses bleed like that, everybody who is scheduled to touch the ball becomes viable in DFS builds, which is exactly what we want on a single-game slate.
My read lines up with the market: this profiles as a high-scoring Ravens win. Miami's victories came against the Jets and Falcons, while Baltimore's record is more about a rough early schedule (Buffalo, Detroit, Kansas City, the Rams) and a month without Lamar than it is about talent. This is the kind of national spot where the Ravens can reintroduce themselves as playoff contenders. And if it turns into a Baltimore rout, do not be surprised if this is the last time we see McDonald on the Dolphins' sideline. Let's get into the players who benefit most from this setup.
Injury Roundup
Baltimore is as healthy as they've been all year, highlighted by Lamar Jackson's return from the hamstring that sidelined him since late September. The injury report is clean, and there's every reason to expect the Ravens to be firing on all cylinders Thursday night.
Miami's list is short, too. Tight end is the only real concern after Darren Waller went down with a pectoral injury in Week 7, and backup Julian Hill (ankle) will also be out. That pushes Tanner Conner into the next-man-up role, which doesn't move the needle much and is addressed later in this article. On defense, safety Ashtyn Davis (quadriceps) is doubtful. He's graded in the bottom quartile at the position by PFF, so his replacement may not represent a major drop-off.
Captain Considerations
Ravens Showdown Players
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (CPT or FLEX)
After last week's late and frankly annoying injury-designation saga, Lamar Jackson will be back under center on Thursday after missing the entire month. The word from Baltimore is that he is 100 percent and not facing restrictions, which is exactly what the Ravens needed as their once-promising season started to wobble. The matchup could not be better. Miami has been shredded at all levels and has not shown an ability to take away a mobile quarterback, so Jackson should be able to move the ball however he wants.
The one wrinkle is John Harbaugh. With the Ravens favored and fully capable of winning this game on the ground, he does not have to empty the playbook or give Lamar 10 designed runs in his first game back. That is the only real pause here. He is still a must-play on this slate because of the ceiling and the matchup, but there is at least a non-zero chance we get a slightly toned-down version of Lamar in his return. DFS Takeaway: Treat Lamar as the slate's highest raw-projection player and build around him accordingly, but understand that a run-heavy Ravens script is very live. That makes pairing him with Henry and one pass-catcher (instead of trying to jam two receivers) a perfectly reasonable approach.