NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. Success in these contests doesn't come from blindly following median projections, but from creating leverage and building unique rosters. Fading the most popular plays can be risky, yet the biggest edges usually come from identifying the right low-rostered pivots and pairing them creatively with the slate's juggernauts.
With both DraftKings and FanDuel now using similar formats — a multiplier slot (Captain/MVP) that costs 1.5x salary and earns 1.5x points — the nuances between sites come down to scoring systems and contest dynamics. DraftKings' full PPR scoring and larger prize pools reward a slightly different decision-making process than FanDuel's half-PPR and softer fields, but the core principles of Showdown roster construction apply across both.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash builds, median projections remain your best guide. For head-to-head contests, consider projections as well, but when two players have similar projections, side with the lower-rostered option.
Game Scripting and Roster Construction
This week's matchup gives us a pair of quarterbacks with resumes on opposite ends of the spectrum. Josh Allen rolls into Houston fresh off a six-touchdown performance last Sunday against Tampa Bay, while Davis Mills will make his third consecutive start in place of C.J. Stroud, who has yet to return from a concussion suffered against Denver at the end of October. Mills has posted respectable numbers in his starts, but those came against Jacksonville and Tennessee, two defenses that rank in the bottom half of the league against the pass. Vegas oddsmakers are projecting this game as a comfortable road win for the Bills, roughly 25 to 19. It is hard to argue with that logic, but there is no such thing as an easy road win in the NFL, which should make roster construction for Showdown contests interesting.
The Bills enter this game at 7-3, good enough for second place in the AFC East. Looking over their wins and losses, Buffalo has been enigmatic for much of the year; they opened the season with a tight one-point win against the Ravens but have taken puzzling losses to the likes of Atlanta and Miami. They are 2-2 on the road with wins coming against the Jets and Saints. Frankly, I am not convinced Buffalo is a great NFL team at this point in the season, and I question whether they should be such heavy road favorites against the Texans, who boast one of the better defensive units in the league. Houston is 5-5 but appears to be rounding into form after an 0-3 start. Since then, they are 5-2 with losses to the Broncos and Seahawks, both likely playoff teams. Despite the absence of C.J. Stroud, I expect them to keep this game closer than the market suggests, with the Bills ultimately pulling out a 20-17 win.
In terms of roster construction, the only true must-play on the board is Josh Allen, whose ability to take over a game in all facets makes him very difficult to fade. Beyond Allen, your player selection should follow your projected game script. I am expecting a low-scoring game that comes down to the final minutes, so I prefer a fairly even distribution in Showdown builds. A 3-3 construction makes a lot of sense, though I can also get behind a 4-2 approach depending on how you allocate salary. This is one of the rare weeks where I think a kicker can land in the winning lineup; which one you choose should align with how you see the game playing out (I will likely lean toward Ka'imi Fairbairn). See below for the rest of my analysis on Thursday night's contest.
Injury Roundup
The Bills had a whopping 16 players on Monday's injury report but returned most of them to practice on Wednesday, leaving only a few expected absences heading into Thursday night. Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck), Mecole Hardman (calf), and Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) are all expected to sit. On the surface, that looks like a hit to the Bills' passing game, but Hardman and Samuel have been afterthoughts in this offense in 2025, and Kincaid has a strong backup in Dawson Knox, so the Bills should be just fine from a personnel standpoint.
As mentioned in the lead-in, the Texans will be without C.J. Stroud for the third consecutive week, as he remains in the league's concussion protocol. Stroud's absence negatively impacts the entire offense; if you are wondering who is still playable in Showdown contests, see below for the full breakdown. Beyond Stroud, Houston will also be without starting defensive back Jalen Pitre, also due to a concussion. Linebacker Jamal Hill will be out as well, but Hill has not played much in 2025, so his absence does not impact our analysis.
Captain Considerations
Bills Showdown Players
Quarterback
Josh Allen (CPT or FLEX)
The one sure thing in Buffalo's offense is Josh Allen, who has accounted for 14 touchdowns over his past four games, including seven on the ground. The challenge with rostering Allen is figuring out how to stack him for correlation; the Bills spread the ball around to all of their receivers, which frustrates NFL defenses and DFS players alike. While we will sort through the pass catchers in the sections that follow, one thing is clear: Allen carries both the highest floor and the highest ceiling on this one-game slate and should be treated accordingly. DFS Takeaway: Allen is as close to a lock as you will find on this slate, and most of your decision-making should focus on how you want to stack or even leave him unstacked in certain builds rather than whether to roster him at all.