Identifying bounce-back or breakout players for the following season is a long-standing strategy to maximize roster value in the offseason. Here are my favorite bets for an uptick in 2026:
Quarterbacks
Jaxson Dart, NY Giants
Why: Projecting breakout players includes two key aspects - supporting data more optimistic than one would expect considering their circumstances, and is there intrinsic upside to the profile? Jaxson Dart began his career from a sub-optimal stance, as most franchise quarterbacks are gone in the top half of Round 1 in the NFL Draft. After Cam Ward, the general dialogue in NFL Draft circles was that there was a huge gap between Ward (1.01 worthy) and the rest of the field. My projection model spoke differently and pointed to Ward as an overrated prospect within the prism of taking him 1.01 or even early in Round 1. The same model pointed to Dart as the most underrated profile in the quarterback class and far more worthy of going 1.01 than Ward.
Jaxson Dart bides his time behind Russell Wilson in the early weeks of the season and started to see playing time in Week 4. In his debut game, Malik Nabers subsequently injured his knee and was out for the season. A month later, Cam Skattebo's season ended via injury as well. Without Nabers and Skattebo, the Giants have one of the weakest collections of skill-position talent around their quarterback in the NFL. Despite the clear supporting cast fragility, Dart has been QB6 in PPG since Week 4 and has the most rushing yards of all quarterbacks over that span, despite missing two games.
One of the key markers for a quarterback's success, especially for young unproven profiles, is their big-time throw ratio. Unlike the touchdown-to-interception ratio, which can be influenced by easy touchdown throws and interceptions that may or may not be attributed to the quarterback, the big-time throw (BTT) ratio uses their high-impact throws and turnover-worthy plays as the primary metrics. 1.00 to 1.10 is the general annual average for starting quarterbacks. Falling below this range for long, and job security comes into question. The best in the NFL are consistently in the 1.40-2.00 range for chunks of their career, if not for their career average. Jaxson Dart is at 1.40 and already has five games with multiple big-time throws. This is highly encouraging for a young quarterback.
The optimism for Jaxson Dart in 2026 as a breakout player is a simple outline. First off, Dart is already an impact fantasy option with his rushing. The negative is that Dart's biggest area for growth is simply being more savvy with his running style by absorbing (and doling out) fewer hits by sliding and exiting out of bounds. The second area is his supporting cast improving around him. Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo are in-house options, and if returning to form anywhere close to Week 1, are significant upgrades. With Wan'Dale Robinson a free agent, expect the Giants to add to the passing game, considering Jalin Hyatt has been an abject disappointment.
Bryce Young, Carolina
Why: The patience factor with young quarterbacks in the NFL is at an all-time low. Front offices and head coaches are tied to their prescribed choice and held accountable for any losing seasons, where the concept of developing young signal-callers is nearly extinct. Bryce Young has been around for a long time by the microwave-type standards in today's NFL. That said, Young is finishing his third NFL season and has Carolina firmly in the playoff mix.
One of the key metrics for a young quarterback is their big-time throw ratio (BTT, see Jaxson Dart above). Young sits at 1.07 this season in the metric, hovering near the NFL average for starting quarterbacks. This was after being just below average in Year 1 and easily above with his strong Year 2. Young has been allowed to grow and work through his development, and yet still has a ratio of 1.25 for his career - a mark similar to C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott for their careers, both affixed starters for their teams. Young's 1.57 TD-INT ratio for his career should be better considering his BTT ratio, pointing to future regression tendencies.
In terms of the supporting cast, Young's notable weapons are all in their early years as well, with Xavier Legette finishing his second season and Tetairoa McMillan finishing his first. Legette has generally been a disappointment thus far, while McMillan is on the path to success. Ja'Tavion Sanders, their notable tight end investment (early Day 3) during Young's tenure, has shown little uptick, averaging fewer than 20 yards per game this season in Year 2.
Young enters a critical Year 4 for rookie contract quarterbacks, for a significant new contract. Spotrac has similar contracts for Young's projection as Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, and Brock Purdy - something in the $35-40 million per season. Expect the weapons to improve, given their weakness at WR2/3 and tight end.
Bryce Young is priced around Cam Ward, Daniel Jones, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix Jr. in dynasty. All have worse NFL-only profiles of production than Young and carry similar (or more) bust risk over the next 12-18 months.
Tight Ends
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