Top 5 Passing Matchups
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay
As Michael Penix Jr. enters his second season, there’s significant optimism for growth for the 2024 first-round pick. Penix showed inconsistency in the three games as a starter in 2024, completing just 58% of his passes while throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions. The good news for the Falcons is that Drake London could be in position for a big season if the small sample size is any indication of what is to come in 2025. London had 100-yard games in two of the three games with Penix as the starter, including an 18-target 187-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 18 against Carolina. This offense, with Bijan Robinson, will force Tampa Bay to respect the run and should open up even more throwing opportunities for Penix to get off to a strong 2025 start.
Tampa Bay has tried to rebuild a defense that was among the worst in the NFL last season, as it allowed 262 passing yards per game, which was the third-worst in the NFL. The Buccaneers drafted two cornerbacks this offseason in Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish, while adding Kindle Vildor in free agency. The problem is that none of these additions has replaced the starters in Zyon McCollum or slot corner Tykee Smith. The key to the Buccaneers' success in stopping the pass will rely heavily on whether Antoine Winfield Jr. can bounce back from a horrendous season last year after three great years from 2021 to 2023. They’ll need him at safety as Christian Izien enters his second season after struggling mightily in his rookie season in coverage. The addition of Haason Reddick could pay dividends, as while Reddick had an abysmal 2024, he had four straight seasons of double-digit sacks from 2020 to 2023.
Philadelphia vs Dallas
Philadelphia's offense last season was a low-volume passing offense, but extremely efficient. Jalen Hurts averaged just 193 passing yards per game, which is the lowest in his career and a significant decline compared to 246 in 2023 and 225 in 2024. The good news for Hurts is that he averaged a career-best 68% completion percentage and 8.0 yards per attempt. The question heading into 2025 is how this offense will look, given that Saquon Barkley had 482 touches last year, including the playoffs, which is likely unsustainable if the Eagles have Super Bowl aspirations once again, which should lead to more passing opportunities for DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown. The offensive line continues to be one of the league’s best, although it will have a new right guard as Mekhi Becton left for the Chargers and is replaced by Tyler Steen, who was a 2023 third-round draft pick and is getting his first real chance to be a full-time starter.
The big question for the Cowboys' defense is how they are going to deal with the loss of Micah Parsons in the surprising trade just a week before the season. The Cowboys will put a lot of pressure on Dante Fowler Jr. and this pass rush to generate enough pressure to help the secondary. Fowler is coming off a tremendous season as he had 10.5 sacks last year, which was just the second time in his nine-year career that he had double-digit sacks. Besides Fowler, the Cowboys are going to rely on 2024 second-round pick Marshawn Kneeland, who had zero sacks in 11 games last year, along with Sam Williams, who is returning from an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of 2024. At cornerback, Trevon Diggs missed most of the pre-season as he was on the Physically Unable to Perform list, but will play this week at least for a portion of the game. If DaRon Bland can return to his 2023 form, when he was First-Team All-Pro, it would greatly benefit this defense. However, he struggled in 2024, and with a safety group that excels at stopping the run but is less effective against the pass, this could be a long season for Dallas.
Cincinnati at Cleveland