Cracking FanDuel Week 7

Sunday Morning Update:

Check back each Sunday Morning for my final thoughts on the slate, and any late breaking injury news

Week 6 Result- Tie- 1-3-2

I'm not going to sugar coat it. The last two weeks have been among the most frustrating experience on FanDuel that I've had in the 16 years of playing it. The pricing is just horrendous to the point where Week 5 was a 1 v 1 of Justin Jefferson vs Nico Collins and Week 6 was just everyone ending up on the exact same roster, as about 75% of FanDuel had the same roster. Even more frustrating is that once again the Sunday Morning Update was a net negative, as I essentially swapped Ken Walker III and Jalen Coker for Bijan Robinson and Luther Burden III. While that was likely the optimal move, it moved on to the identical lineup that everyone else in the field had.

The Sunday Morning Update has been horrendous this season, and I’m beginning to wonder if I’m overthinking my analysis and being consumed by group think. Essentially playing timid towards based on what I think others are going to do instead of being bold and sticking with the lineups that I'm spending hours building. The Sunday Morning Update has now cost at least four weeks, and the Primary Cash Lineup would be 4-2 or 5-1 if not for those updates.

The bigger question for FanDuel is what do we do here. We are approaching another week where the core is going to be surrounding the Green Bay vs Detroit game. I’ll discuss it more in the strategy section, but giving cash games a break certainly could be the move and shift it more into smaller single entry GPP’s which have had cut lines lower than 50/50’s at some points of the year.

For me, I’m going to continue to play the 50/50’s simply because I love the competition. The tie’s are annoying, the trains are annoying, but I love trying to build the best cash game possible. I’ll also be doing single entry GPP’s, as those are likely more profitable at this point in time. Some people treat those as true GPP lineups and try to find obscure stacks, but in a single-entry you should really be treating it like a Cash Plus lineup where you're correlated, but not so obscure that you're losing value as the field sizes don't have the payoff that a big field GPP does. Essentially, the way to think about it, is if you build a lineup that has a 0.5% chance of being optimal, then you want payout that is at least 200x your investment. Otherwise, you're likely losing money over the long run. 

Injury Creates Opportunity

Puka Nacua is questionable with a calf injury after leaving Thursday’s practice early and sitting out Friday. Sean McVay called it “minor,” but he also said Nacua wasn’t able to have “some of the power and explosion,” and that’s not what you want to hear about a wide receiver two days before a game. Since coming back from the hip injury, Nacua has 32 receptions for 343 yards over three games, so if he plays, you play him. The problem is this is a 4:25 PM game, so you need a pivot ready. If he’s out, it’s tough to trust Matthew Stafford. Konata Mumpfield (8 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown this season) would be the top cheap receiver, and with Terrance Ferguson on IR, Tyler Higbee becomes a real option at tight end. Kyren Williams would also see additional targets after being used minimally last week.