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Cleared for Launch
It's been a tumultuous road for Jameson Williams to this point in his NFL career. Despite tearing his ACL in the 2022 National Championship Game, the Detroit Lions traded up to land the burner in that April's draft. The injury limited him to just 78 snaps as a rookie.
In 2023, a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's anti-gambling policy cost him more time. He was more involved than in his rookie season, but the production remained modest.
Year Three is when Williams' potential finally flashed. He emerged as a speedy, versatile player who can win at all three levels and bring an over-the-top element that Detroit's offense has yet to fully embrace. That could change under new offensive coordinator John Morton.
Williams is no longer just a shot-play specialist. He is expected to line up all over the field, with the skill set to evolve into something more than a situational weapon. Given his development so far, there is a realistic scenario in which the Alabama product ascends to a different tier entirely. The window to buy in before he becomes a fantasy star is open, but it may not stay that way for long.
Williams' rise is coming. If your roster doesn't benefit, someone else's will.
Going Deep
One of the main differences we could see in Detroit post-Ben Johnson is an uptick in deep passing attempts. Morton served as the passing game coordinator in Denver last season. While it was Sean Payton's offense, Morton helped design the system.
The difference in deep passing volume was stark between Johnson's offense and what Morton coordinated in Denver.
Team Deep Passing Metrics in 2024
| Attempts Per Game | Yards Per Game | EPA/Pass | QB Pressure Percentage | Touchdowns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | 6.3 | 48.2 | +0.47 | 23.8% | 8 |
| Detroit | 3.4 | 31.6 | +0.72 | 50.0% | 7 |
Under Johnson, the Lions attempted the second-fewest deep passes in the league, though they posted the third-highest EPA/pass on those throws. The efficiency was strong, but the pressure rate—fourth-highest in the NFL—likely limited the volume. Denver, by contrast, had the league's lowest pressure rate, which fueled its success.
If Morton pushes for more deep shots, the challenge will be protecting Jared Goff long enough to make those plays work. Denver proved it can work, finishing sixth in deep attempts and tied for 12th in EPA/pass, thanks largely to the protection.
Morton will probably aim for a middle ground between Denver's aggression and Johnson's measured approach. The player best positioned to benefit is Williams, though Goff's ability to handle added deep volume is a major factor.
Goff's Deep Passing Metrics (2022-2024)
| Attempts Per Game | Yards Per Game | EPA/Dropback | Pressure Percentage | Touchdowns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.9 | 30.4 | +0.68 | 48.5% | 7 |
| 2023 | 2.2 | 39.5 | +0.62 | 36.8% | 5 |
| 2022 | 2.8 | 36.2 | +0.42 | 31.9% | 5 |
Goff's Passing Metrics Under Pressure (2022-2024)
| Attempts Per Game | Yards Per Game | EPA/Dropback | Completion Percentage Over Expected | Deep Percentage | Passer Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9.3 | 70.6 | -0.22 | +1.5% | 10.1% | 86.5 |
| 2023 | 11.7 | 77.8 | -0.37 | -2.3% | 7.0% | 62.9 |
| 2022 | 10.5 | 67.2 | -0.23 | -8.2% | 8.4% | 69.2 |
A high-volume deep passing approach hasn't been part of Johnson's system in Detroit. The pressure percentages trended up as attempts trended down over the three-year sample. The pressure rates on those attempts could be why the attempts decreased. Goff's efficiency remained relatively steady given the volume change.
Goff's attempts under pressure dropped to the lowest per-game figure in the last three years. His completion percentage over expected got better each year, as did his passer rating, while the deep percentage on those attempts hit a three-year high. The counters Johnson and Goff had to pressure were effective, and clearly, the deep attempts played a role in that last season.
Morton's ability to counter the pressure with downfield concepts and improve protection on deep dropbacks will be key to an efficient approach with any uptick in usage. Williams could play a significant role in that plan.
Versatility is Key
To be a consistently startable fantasy wide receiver, a player must contribute in multiple ways. Pure deep threats can deliver spike weeks, but receivers who impact all phases provide both the ceiling and the floor fantasy managers covet.
Williams' +0.65 expected points added per target on 12 deep targets tied for 31st among qualified receivers in 2024. His overall efficiency has risen as his availability and usage have grown.
Williams' Career Receiving Metrics (2022-2024)
| Games | Targets/Game | Expected Points Added /Target | Yards/Route | Catch Rate Over Expected | Fantasy PPG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15 | 6.1 | +0.44 | 2.2 | -3.0% | 12.2 |
| 2023 | 12 | 3.5 | +0.30 | 1.5 | -4.6% | 5.7 |
| 2022 | 6 | 1.5 | -0.13 | 1.1 | -44.6% | 2.4 |
Williams' development has brought more volume and production. While his deep-threat role is real, versatility is the driving force behind his ascension.
Short-area work is a big piece of that growth and will continue to shape his outlook.
Williams' Career Receving Metrics on Short Targets (2022-2024)
| Games | Targets/Game | Expected Points Added /Target | Yards/Route | Catch Rate Over Expected | Yards After Catch Over Expected/Game | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15 | 3.0 | +0.29 | 7.4 | -1.0% | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 12 | 1.6 | -0.02 | 4.2 | -10.1% | -1.3 |
| 2022 | 6 | 0.3 | -0.47 | 0.0 | -79.5% | 0.0 |
Denver ranked 10th in short passes attempted last year, and Detroit wasn't far behind. The short passing game will remain a staple, and Williams nearly doubled his short targets per game from 2023 to 2024. His 7.4 yards per route run led Detroit's top pass catchers, and his +0.29 EPA/target ranked second among them.
If these trends continue, Williams' role could expand further. He is producing efficiently on both short and deep targets, which suggests his ceiling is climbing without sacrificing floor.
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