Bucky Irving's limited return to Buccaneers practice this week and a looming matchup with the stingy Los Angeles Rams' run defense were afterthoughts on Sunday in Buffalo. Week 12 didn't matter. Week 11 belonged to Sean Tucker, and the fantasy managers who believed.
We'll get to the unsung hero and what it all means shortly. First, some pleasantries. Welcome back to Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. Tracking the storylines that made and broke our fantasy well-being was difficult this week. There was a surplus of angles. When I landed on the six headliners, I felt like I was leaving some contenders out.
On one hand, I think that's an indication I landed on the best -- and worst -- from the week. It could also mean your triumph or tragedy didn't get the marquee treatment. That's what the intro is for this week. I still need to recognize the fringe contenders.
I'd be remiss if I didn't also offer the Jonathan Taylor managers my condolences for their first or second losses this week. Fear not. You'll be back to running your league in Week 12.
My 1st place fantasy team preparing for its first matchup without Jonathan Taylor pic.twitter.com/XE7pfOnsPG
— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) November 11, 2025
The RJ Harvey dud in his first game since the J.K. Dobbins injury warranted some consideration. I also realized we couldn't be that surprised. The Chiefs are constructed to limit opposing rushing attacks, and Jaleel McLaughlin still played the vulture role. Harvey's 60.7 percent share of the running back snaps was a positive step.
The Michael Penix Jr. and Josh Jacobs injuries are tough. The fantasy returns for Atlanta's skill players in Kirk Cousins' lone start this season were less than optimal. It also doesn't help that Drake London is slated to miss some time. It doesn't sound like Jacobs will miss an extended period. That's good news for an offense predicated on efficiency and already missing Tucker Kraft. Jacobs or not, Christian Watson becomes an interesting name down the stretch.
The Eagles' offensive line continues to throw the entire offense out of whack, while A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts take all the heat. Lane Johnson is now down with a foot injury, so things go from bad to worse. Somehow, we're still talking about an 8-2 team that just limited the Packers and Lions to a combined 16 points in six days. More on that later.
The 49ers offense has held its own all year, but it found another gear in Arizona. Sam Darnold might also have some demons to slay.
With that, the fringe topics are covered. Short and sweet. That was peak efficiency. If those were the honorable mentions, think about how good this week's entries have to be. Maybe I'm biased. It's a nice group, though. Maybe the best. Until next week's list, of course.
Alright, I've expounded for long enough. Let's dive in.
Fantasy Dream: Sean Tucker's Carrying Act
There's a subset of running backs relegated to spell-back roles who could handle more volume and produce if the need were to arise. Tyler Allgeier arguably headlines the group. Ray Davis' candidacy is more shaky than it was this time last year. Kenneth Gainwell's done enough to earn that classification. Maybe you call them handcuffs. I don't know if that tells the full story.
Tucker is there. If you didn't view him that way before Week 11, you should now. His limited run in 2024 showed flashes. That spark caught fire against the Bills.
Sean Tucker's 2024 Metrics vs. Week 11 vs. BUF
| Metric | 2024 | Week 11, 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Snap Share | 9.9% | 45.6% |
| Opportunities/Game | 3.6 | 21 |
| Rushing Yards Over Expected | +1.5 | +1.3 |
| Expected Points Added/Attempt | +0.18 | +0.07 |
| Success Rate | 50% | 31.6% |
| Yards After Contact/Attempt | 3.7 | 2.7 |
| Missed Tackles Forced | 15 | 3 |
| Half-PPR Fantasy Points/Opportunity | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Half-PPR Fantasy Points/Game | 3.8 | 33 |
Rachaad White led the backfield, logging 58.8 percent of the snaps. Tucker, though, handled 21 opportunities to White's 13. He made the most of them, averaging 1.6 Half-PPR points per opportunity. While White's passing down profile led to an 81.3 percent share of the team's third-down snaps, Tucker was the preference in the red zone and in goal-to-go situations. Of his four red zone attempts, three were in goal-to-go situations. White, meanwhile, managed a single red-zone carry.
Tucker's performance didn't deviate significantly from his 2024 metrics. The yardage over expected was roughly in line with what he showed last season, despite a spike in opportunities. His ability to remain efficient with increased usage was also promising for any shot at a larger role in the future, whether in Tampa Bay or elsewhere. Irving's eventual return clouds his ability to build on the performance in the short term. It's also worth briefly exploring Buffalo's propensity to allow explosive rushing performances.
Through 11 weeks, the Bills are allowing 5.4 rushing yards per play, 45 carries of 10 or more yards, and 4.27 yards after contact per attempt. Each of those marks is among the bottom three teams in the league.
Tucker's long-term upside makes him an interesting piece in dynasty formats, especially considering his impending free agency. If Irving remains shelved, the potential for short-term utility is now obvious.
Fantasy Nightmare: The J.J. McCarthy Experience
The credit Kevin O'Connell has earned over his Vikings tenure is entirely justified. He's one of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL and an adept playcaller, to boot. It's helped him find success with extended runs as Kirk Cousins, Joshua Dobbs, and Sam Darnold as his most notable starting quarterbacks. This isn't a knock on any of those guys, to be clear. Rather, it's an example of the turnover O'Connell's dealt with, sometimes voluntarily, at the most important position in football.
I didn't think McCarthy would be his biggest test yet.
J.J. McCarthy's Last Three Games
| Metric | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Pass Rate | 50.8% | 70.5% | 59.3% |
| Expected Points Added/Dropback | -0.12 | -0.19 | -0.50 |
| Completion Rate Over Expected | +4.9% | -12.2% | -14.1% |
| Air Yards/Attempt | 10.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 |
| Quarterback Pressure Rate | 58.1% | 36.2% | 21.9% |
| Blitz Rate | 45.2% | 23.4% | 37.5% |
| Fantasy Points | 18.9 | 14.7 | 6.0 |
The early returns on McCarthy after his injury-induced redshirt rookie season are troubling. You can debate how fair it is to make assessments, given his injury and the limited sample, but this is more about gauging where O'Connell's first hand-picked franchise quarterback is faring through five career games. If the last two to three seasons have taught us anything about NFL quarterbacks, it's that making definitive statements about a career too early isn't always the right move. Unless it's Josh Rosen. Or, like, Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
See, every rule has an exception.
It doesn't look great for McCarthy right now. That I can concede. It's also important to note that corners have been turned, and lightbulbs have turned on for quarterbacks with time.
We now have data from three post-bye games to analyze. He's trending in the wrong direction. He was under siege in Week 9 against Detroit, dropping back 14 times against the blitz. He completed 24.2 percent of his passes over expected and took just two sacks on those plays. His blitz rate dropped in each of the previous two games, along with his pressure rate. McCarthy posted the worst expected points added per dropback figure on dropbacks without pressure in Week 10. He was second-worst in Week 11.
As a result, Justin Jefferson is the Half-PPR WR23 over the last three weeks. Jordan Addison is the WR36.
The Ravens and Bears responded to his strong day against the blitz in Week 9 by making him beat coverage. The approach has yielded favorable results. Next up is Green Bay, which blitzes at the second-lowest rate in the NFL.
O'Connell and McCarthy now need to counter the counter.
