Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares: Jahmyr Gibbs Goes Scorched Earth

This was always the upside. Jahmyr Gibbs' performance in Week 12 was within his range of outcomes. If a career-high 62.7 snap percentage was guaranteed during draft season, he may not have become the value he was in the middle to end of the first round. 

You're all smart people. That's a fact. That's why you know Gibbs is getting his own entry this week. 

The Dreams and Nightmares train rolls on. I'm glad you're here. Week 12 was a stark reminder that this is a fantasy football piece, not my personal journal. I can't sit down and only air grievances about whatever the Eagles just did in Dallas. I must say, I woke up on Monday morning feeling like I had been hit by a train. I suppose 14 penalties, including three that stalled drives in the fourth quarter, which led to a historic meltdown against Dallas, will do that. 

I could certainly talk about how Zack Baun's dropped interception would've spared me. I won't, though. I can't. We need to get to the fantasy twists that made and broke us. I won't bore you talking about the hapless, soul-sucking Eagles offense. 

Speaking of blown leads, at least I can find comfort in the fact that the Eagles aren't the Giants.

Shane Bowen is fired and he gave us his final masterpiece.

Historically bad defense.
5 blown double digit leads.

Giants could be 7-5
Instead Shane Bowen's defense have Big Blue sitting at 2-10.#NYGiants pic.twitter.com/5zalyc3tCs

— 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗭𝗼𝗻𝗲 (@TheBlueZonee) November 24, 2025

That was a low blow. I'm sorry. Just kidding. I'm not that sorry. I'm a little bitter today. 

I'll make up for it. There's a hierarchy in the NFL. The Giants aren't at the bottom. They're certainly closer than they are to the top, but no one's as low as the Raiders. The team fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly after a 14-point loss at home to Shedeur Sanders and the Browns on Sunday. Could a compelling argument be made that the Jets are lower? I suppose. New York, at least, has some first-round darts to throw over the next couple of drafts. Those picks could be anything. They could even be players who lead to more first-round picks. 

The Raiders aren't much more than another Vegas show. Catering to away fans flying to the Strip to watch their teams get stress-free wins is good business. At least Ashton Jeanty had a big day. We need to celebrate that when it happens. 

That's it for the intro. Let's unpack some of our fantasy trauma. 

Fantasy Dream: Jahmyr Gibbs Goes Scorched Earth

The ability to push for the top overall player in fantasy is part of Gibbs' profile. Efficiency and volume lead to elite outcomes. Gibbs was the face of elite efficiency with passable volume over the last two years. 

The volume is catching up, and the efficiency patterns illustrate a dynamic two-way player. 

Jahmyr Gibbs' Last Four Games

For context, Dan Campbell took over offensive play-calling after Detroit's Week 9 loss to Minnesota. The splits for Gibbs with Campbell as the play-caller are significant. From posting one of the least-productive games of his career, to shifting fantasy matchups in the span of a week. It's been a significant shift. 

Gibbs is the RB1 over the last three weeks in Half-PPR points per game by 6.3. Factor in his 4.3-point showing in Week 9, and he's still the RB1 with 27 points per game. 

His explosive upside is rare. Even on a team with Jameson Williams, there are times when Gibbs looks like the fastest player on the field. His ability to change direction in space is what makes him dangerous. If he identifies a crease, there's a good chance he's altering the game. 

In Week 10, the rushing and receiving efficiency were both elite. With a 50 percent share of the snaps, they had to be. It equated to 36.7 Half-PPR points. The story in Weeks 11 and 12 differed. The Eagles limited his rushing production, so he led the Lions in receiving. The Giants held him in check as a receiver, so he burned them on his rushing attempts.  

If the rushing and receiving efficiency comes together in a game in which Gibbs handles 70 percent of the snaps, there's a path to a game we talk about for a long time. Even if you only get one or the other, only a small list of players can reach the upside. 

Fantasy Nightmare: The Read With Minnesota's Receivers 

I wrote about J.J. McCarthy in last week's installment. Things weren't great then. They might be worse now. 

I'm looking at this through a different lens. We've established McCarthy's trending in the wrong direction. The Packers got after him, pressuring at a 48 percent clip and sacking him on 20 percent of his dropbacks. All while blitzing on 16 percent of their defensive plays, the fifth-lowest rate of the week. 

When you couple that with what we looked at last week, it's no surprise that Justin Jefferson finished with 6.8 Half-PPR points and Jordan Addison didn't log a catch. 

Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison Per Game Metrics

Jefferson's opportunities after the catch have at least elevated his weekly floor. He's 11th among receivers with 28.7 yards after catch per game. Addison's role as the field-stretching boundary receiver has limited that production, which has led to brutal showings. 

That's largely because the deep passing game is nonexistent with McCarthy. Despite attempting the third-most passes of 20+ air yards per game, McCarthy is completing 16.4 percent less than expected. That's the third-worst completion percentage over expected, behind Michael Penix Jr. and Dillon Gabriel, who attempt three and 0.9 deep passes per game. McCarthy's been pressured on 24 percent of these attempts, the league's third-lowest rate. 

The evaporation of deep production in Minnesota's pass game plays a large role in the less-than-optimal output by Addison and Jefferson. Without it, much of the season outlook for both hinges on their ability to frequently create. That proposition feels less realistic by the week. 

Fantasy Dream: A Caleb Williams Development