In 281 BC, the Greek philosopher Epicurus was the first to say, "You can't win a fantasy football league on draft day, but you can lose it." He had just finished a season at 4-10 after making Trentus Richardsonus his first-round pick, and for a man who believed in achieving happiness and peace through moderation and the absence of pain, it was a hard lesson.
According to historians, he broke his console television in a fit of, um, neither peace nor moderation.
What? It's a true story. Read a book. Learn something.
It's an adage that is every bit as true 2,500 football seasons later. There's a lot that goes into building a championship fantasy squad, and having a good draft is just one step. Managers have to make the right waiver claims and trades. Make the right lineup calls. And get lucky.
But if you blow it on draft day, it's a steep climb indeed. It's possible to make the playoffs after a bad draft--but it ain't easy. The more likely conclusion to the season is disappointment. Philosophizing. Gin.
The last thing any manager wants is to faceplant on the biggest day of the fantasy calendar. It's why we research. Why this site exists. Why I don't have to get a real job.
But it happens every year--in as many leagues as not. It's not just a matter of drafting players who underperform, either. It's a matter of strategic errors. Easily avoidable mistakes that get made each and every season--by knowledgeable fantasy managers who know better.
Even this one.
In an effort to help you, Faithful Reader, dodge the sort of landmines that can blow up a season before it begins, I am peeling back the proverbial curtain. Hypothetically speaking, I may have made a few mistakes over my two-plus decades as a fantasy enthusiast and analyst--like, say, drafting Jeff Garcia in Round 3 in 2004.
Yeah. Did that.
In an effort to avoid making the same mistake twice, I have kept a diary the entire time where I have cataloged, mourned, and ruminated over those (hypothetical) mistakes. Let the pain of my errors spill from the tattered remains of my soul onto the page.
Said diary is now about eleventeen thousand pages.
So, as fantasy draft season gets underway in earnest, here are some of the entries from that diary--and the lessons we can take from them.
Just be forewarned. Some dark stuff going on between these ears.
If my brain had a soundtrack, that would essentially be it.
Be Prepared
Dear Diary,
Fantasy football is a stupid hobby, and this is absolutely the last year I will ever do it. From now on, it's nothing but philately for this guy. Jerkface Doug asked if I would join a new league, and friendly and helpful person that I am, I accepted. But he didn't tell me it was a superflex league, my top two quarterbacks now are Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, and this isn't 2015.
I hate that guy so much.
--GD
This should go without saying, but every season scores of fantasy managers punch holes in their team off the jump because they don't check the scoring and settings. Every fantasy manager should be familiar not only with said scoring, but also with what it means for player values at each position. If you're planning to like, win, and stuff, having tiered rankings for that scoring is also a good idea. Or, you can plug the settings into Footballguys' Draft Dominator and let it do the work.
Just saying.
Don't Be Dogmatic
Dear Diary,
This year, my team is going to be more awesome than that "Madame Web" movie that's coming out soon--it looks really good. I decided to go "Zero RB" in my draft, and none of the other losers in my league were going to deter me from it. Sure, there are a couple of question marks about my wide receiver corps led by Marvin Harrison Jr.., but it's a good group, and my Zack Moss-led backfield is going to return crazy value. They thought they could get me off my game by ALL going "Zero RB" too, but I was committed, Jack!
On to victory! Viva La 2024!
--GD
This isn't a knock on "Zero RB." Or "Hero RB" or "Robust RB" or "Sexy RB" or any of the other 119 different draft strategies fantasy managers employ. Any strategy can be effective--if the value is there. Having a plan is good, but the best drafters are willing to pivot from it in a second if the draft flow takes an unexpected turn. You can't force a strategy on a draft--it's paddling upstream. Go where the draft takes you. Flow and be one with the universe.
I write fortune cookies for extra cash. It's a gig.
Don't Take a QB Early
Dear Diary,
I never thought this would happen to me, but I've met someone who just takes my breath away. His name is Pat, he has a nice smile, and he just threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns on the way to running away with the No. 1 spot among fantasy quarterbacks. He is a golden God who will dominate his position forever and ever, and while a first-round pick is a steep price for a quarterback, there is absolutely no possible way this could go wrong.
Besties 4 Life.
--GD
No kidding--Patrick Mahomes II's ADP in 2019 was 12th overall. He finished that season as QB10.
Yes, I just said don't be dogmatic. And if the elite quarterbacks drop on draft day, it's another story--just had a draft where Lamar Jackson of the Ravens fell to Pick No. 47. But spending a second-round pick on a quarterback is bad juju. The first signal-caller drafted almost never finishes in that spot, and even if he does, the edge gained over lower-end (and much less expensive) quarterbacks in one-QB leagues isn't worth the hole it leaves at running back or wide receiver.
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