At this point in the season, it feels like just about every lineup call is a close call.
Sure, it's nice to have a 10-1 team whose top-two running backs are Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts and Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers. It's fun to be able to roll out Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase in weeks where he doesn't get himself suspended for behaving like a petulant five-year-old. Or to have Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride or Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen rostered.
But for every fantasy juggernaut that has spent the season steamrolling opponents, there are five 5-6 or 6-5 teams who just lost a running back to injury or have a wideout on bye. They have no choice but to look to the bench. To dig deeper into their rosters in the hopes of picking the right starter in a must-win contest. For those managers, the pressure is higher than it has been all season long.
Had to see that one coming.
Given that the whole point of this column is to make those Close Calls correctly, the pressure is at its apex for this analyst as well. Luckily, I have been correct on every single recommendation this season, so no worries.
There's no need to go back and check that. Trust me.
Every week here at Footballguys, Close Calls will make a case for a pair of closely-ranked fantasy options—and then make the call on which player will be more productive.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings.
Week 12 Close Calls
Close Call: Jacoby Brissett, Arizona (QB13) vs. Dak Prescott, Dallas (QB14)
The Case for Brissett: As a team, the Cardinals are a mess. But Brissett has been lighting it up—including over 400 passing yards and an NFL-record 47 completions last week. As Mark Morales-Smith wrote at SI, there's little reason to think that won't continue Sunday at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season," Morales-Smith wrote. "They have also allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, which leads us to believe that this will be another pass-heavy game for Brissett on Sunday."
The Case for Prescott: Prescott was third in fantasy points among quarterbacks in Week 11 thanks to a four-touchdown outing against the Las Vegas Raiders. This week's matchup with the rival Eagles is a tougher go, but per SI's Thomas Carelli, it's not as poor a matchup as one might think at first glance.
"The Eagles are 15th in Passing Yards Allowed per Game and 8th versus quarterbacks in Fantasy Football." He wrote. "They are 20th in sacks per game, and the Cowboys are 5th best in sacks allowed per game, so expect Prescott to be protected. It is a moderate matchup for him."
The Call: Brissett. Since Week 7, Brissett is quietly fifth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, and there's no reason to think his numbers won't again be solid in a plus matchup with the Jaguars. In the Week 1 matchup with the Eagles, Prescott failed to throw for 200 yards and didn't have a touchdown pass.
Close Call: Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville (RB20) vs. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans (RB22)
The Case for Etienne: OK, I fudged here a little bit. Sue me.
Even in a game where rookie Bhayshul Tuten had 15 carries and more rushing yards than Etienne a week ago, he still managed a fat fantasy stat line thanks to a pair of scores on the ground. FTN's Tyler Orginski isn't sweating Tuten's growing workload even a little.
"Etienne has been a solid fantasy player all season, especially relative to where he was drafted," he said. "Whether Tuten suits up or not, Etienne remains a strong play. The Jaguars face the Arizona Cardinals, who have been a bit of a run funnel. Arizona ranks in the top 10 in pass defense DVOA, making them tough to pass on, but still allows the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. Don't overthink it, Etienne belongs in your lineup."
The Case for Kamara: Two weeks ago, in a win over the Carolina Panthers, we finally had a Kamara sighting—a season-high 25 touches and the second-most total yards (115) that Kamara has tallied this season. KC Joyner of The Athletic expects the good times to keep rolling this week against the Atlanta Falcons.
"It's been tough to justify slotting Kamara in lineups this season," Joyner said. "Week 12 will make decisions easier. Only four defenses have allowed more rushing yards on planned rush plays over the past month than Atlanta. Save a flex spot for Kamara."
The Verdict: Etienne. Both of these backs are banged up but expected to play. Tuten is also questionable for the Jaguars, which could lead to a bump in touches for Etienne. Even if it doesn't, Etienne has been both more productive and more consistent this season than Kamara.
_jpg)