The Madden Curse: America's Favorite Fantasy Football Myth

Let’s set the scene.

You're in your fantasy draft war room (read: your buddy's basement). You're on the clock. And right there at the top of your board is this year's Madden cover athlete: Saquon Barkley.

But a hush falls over the room.

You feel a chill. A whisper from a shadowy corner:"He's on the cover, dude... he's cursed.”

Welcome to another season of America's favorite fantasy football myth: The Madden Curse.

But fear not, brave manager. Our Jason Wood and Corey Spala have crunched the numbers, consulted the ancient scrolls (read: Excel sheets), and I'm here to tell you:

The curse is not real.

Unless, of course, you also believe Tom Brady is a lizard person. In which case, please continue living your best life. For everyone else, let's look at the facts. And maybe save you from avoiding a fantasy stud just because he's on the front of a video game.

What Even Is the Madden Curse?

Short version: Players who appear on the Madden cover are destined to get hurt, stink up the season, or just fall flat.

The theory gained traction early on after a few high-profile flameouts: Michael Vick, Shaun Alexander and Peyton Hillis (shocker). But 20+ years of data later, the curse doesn't hold up.

Let's zoom out and look at what really happens when you end up on the cover.

The Numbers: Curse? Not So Fast.

We looked at all 23 offensive players who have graced the Madden cover since 2001—shout-out to our Jason Wood for pulling these rankings in. You can see each cover player below and how they actually finished the season.

Here's what the fantasy data tells us:

• 65% finished top-12 at their position for the season
• 74% were top-12 per game producers
• Only 13% finished outside the top-36

And even when they missed time, most guys balled out when they were on the field. The average points per game? 17.7 PPR (or 17.2 if you exclude QBs). That's high-end starter territory.

So yeah, Christian McCaffrey tanked last year. But he also had 272 touches the year before.

Position Matters More Than the Cover

Let's get a little nerdy for a second. The curse doesn't hit every position the same. Here's how Madden cover stars have finished in fantasy by position:

• WRs: 4 of 4 finished top-12
• QBs: 8 of 12 finished top-12
• RBs: 3 of 6 finished top-12
• TEs: 0 of 1 (RIP Gronk 2016)

The real culprit here? Running backs. Not because of the curse, but because they get hit 300 times a year. Side note: if you're looking for a real curse, be even more worried if they cross that dreaded 370 carries threshold, as our Gary Davenport explains. The reality is, and orthopedic studies back this up, running backs have the highest injury risk of any position. That's not magic. That's math.

So... Should You Draft Saquon Barkley?

If Barkley is healthy, he's going to produce. Period. But if you're fading him just because he's on the Madden cover, you're letting superstition win over logic.

Will someone in your league avoid him because of the curse? Probably. Let them. You now know better.

And if you're still nervous? Just draft the backup late and call it your Madden insurance policy.

Final Word: Let's Retire the Panic

The Madden Curse lives on because it feels true when it hits. But the numbers say otherwise.

Yes, a third of cover athletes have disappointed. But two-thirds delivered—often at elite levels. The "curse" is just recency bias with a catchy name.

So draft smart. Use your head. And if you do take Barkley and he gets hurt? Blame the offensive line. Or your injury luck. Or the draft pizza. But don't blame Madden.

It's not a curse. It's football.