Has Tetairoa McMillan Reached His Ceiling?

The Footballguys staff discusses whether Tetairoa McMillan has already reached his ceiling.

Jason Wood's Has Tetairoa McMillan Reached His Ceiling? Jason Wood Published 04/23/2026

© Bob Donnan-Imagn Images Tetairoa McMillan Carolina Panthers

We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.

We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.

We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.

Carolina Panthers Coin-Toss Questions


Tetairoa McMillan had a strong rookie season (WR23). Do you expect further growth this year, or does the system and Bryce Young's play cap his upside?

Maurile Tremblay: I'd expect some growth, but probably not a huge jump. McMillan is already the team's clear No. 1 wide receiver. The cap is the environment — Carolina was still 27th in offense and scoring in 2025, Young's passing numbers were improved but still modest, and the staff changed play-callers because the passing game got too conservative downfield. So I'd lean toward McMillan beating WR23, but more into solid WR2 territory than a true top-12 ceiling unless the Idzik change really opens up the offense.

Andy Hicks: McMillan can improve and should, given the traditional development of young receivers. That doesn't mean it will show up in his fantasy numbers. Only ten wide receivers caught more touchdowns than his seven last year, and a drop in those will be impossible to make up unless the passing numbers take off. Jalen Coker came on strong over the last half of the season and threatens McMillan's target share. McMillan's ADP is just outside the top 12 fantasy receivers and way too high for my liking. Finishing 23rd again will be a good result.

Jeff Haseley: After a 1,000-yard, seven-touchdown rookie season, I expect steady growth from Tetairoa McMillan. He showed he can be the top target and downfield threat last year. While Bryce's play might cap his upside as an elite receiver, McMillan is locked in as a fantasy WR2 with WR1 weeks sprinkled in.

Jason Wood's Verdict

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