Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. A starting role and a high-volume carry total are nice, but when those touches happen away from the end zone, they become empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and a high-volume back generally points to more targets and goal-line chances, which can lead to high-scoring fantasy plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
Note: See the table of all teams' HLO rankings at the bottom of this article.
The Good
Chiefs
Ken Walker III's pairing with the Chiefs has been one of the more obvious good matches of the offseason, à la Derrick Henry heading to Baltimore in a previous offseason. Andy Reid has his best running back in many years, and the offensive design to exploit the position has been on display through two weeks. The Chiefs lead the NFL in running back targets, averaging a robust 10 per game. They are also fourth in goal-line carries for the position. Rashee Rice's short-range target spamming has been replaced by Ken Walker III's explosiveness and tackle-breaking panache. RB1 overall is within Walker's range of outcomes with elite HLO usage, and Emmett Johnson has quickly become one of the most valuable fantasy backup running backs this season.
Raiders
While Ashton Jeanty has slightly underperformed with the HLO opportunities (No.6 actual production vs. No.4 expected production), the turnaround for the Raiders as a fantasy offense has been pronounced through two weeks. Kirk Cousins and the offensive line have both been pleasant surprises to a 2-0 record and an environment where Jeanty can thrive. Jeanty was constantly fighting for every yard beyond the line of scrimmage in 2025 and now has more efficient touches and an ecosystem to fuel a strong RB1 fantasy season. Mike Washington Jr. has clarified the RB2 role since August and is a valuable handcuff as well.
Lions
With No. 1 and No. 6 weekly HLO finishes already this season, Jahmyr Gibbs is off to an elite start on his path to RB1 overall. Sione Vaki is very underrated as the clarified RB2 should Gibbs miss time. Only the Chiefs have a similar HLO consistently over the two games to start the season. Being No.2 in goal-line carries opens up Gibbs to be the rushing touchdown leader in 2026 as well.