In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: if any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. It can be a painful experience, even on good weeks. Week 5 was not good. But it was better than Week 4.
Let's review the aftermath.
- I was in on Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers, who was projected to finish as QB18 with 15.9 points against the Colts. I predicted the veteran signal-caller, on a two-game hot streak, would carry it over to three weeks by finishing inside the top 15. Rodgers was QB11 with 22 points. A hit. ✅
- I was out on 49ers QB Brock Purdy, who has struggled against the Seahawks in the past. Purdy's Footballguys projection called for a QB8 finish with 17.9 fantasy points. I said he would fall outside the top 10. He was QB18 with 14.2 points. Another hit. ✅
- I was in on Seahawks RB Emanuel Wilson, who was getting the kind of volume needed to outperform his RB19, 13.2-point projection. He beat those numbers, finishing as RB17 with 15.2 points. Sadly, I predicted a top-15 finish. Close, but no cigar. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon II, who was projected to finish as RB22 with 12.6 fantasy points. I said he was more of a flex play, and -- unless he scored a touchdown -- would fall outside RB2 territory. Gordon scored his touchdown and finished as RB18 with 14.6 points. Close again, but still a miss. ❌
- I was in on Browns WR Denzel Boston, who was projected to finish as WR24 (with 12.2 points) against the Jets. While those numbers seemed reasonable enough, I decided to be a little more aggressive and said Boston would finish inside the top 20. He did not. The rookie finished the day as WR22 with 13.6 points. Another close one, but a miss nonetheless. ❌
- I was out on Packers WR Christian Watson, who was projected to finish as WR12 with 14.5 points. I was well aware this was risky. I acknowledged he needed big plays to deliver WR1 production. I took a chance on him missing out on those opportunities. He responded with 53- and 42-yard touchdown catches and a WR2 overall performance with a massive 32.3-point effort against the Bears. Sometimes you tame the tiger, sometimes the tiger tames you. This was a huge miss. ❌
- I was in on Bears TE Colston Loveland, who was projected to finish as TE14 with 9.5 points. I predicted he would build on the momentum coming from a six-catch, 57-yard Week 4 performance against the Jets and finish inside TE1 territory this week. Loveland fell short -- far short -- with a TE37 finish and 3.9 fantasy points. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Jaguars TE Brenton Strange, whose Footballguys projection called for a TE13 finish with 10.1 points against the Eagles in London. I thought the matchup would be daunting enough to keep Strange from hitting that TE13 spot. He finished as TE9 with 13.8 points. Yes. Another miss. ❌
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Commanders wide receiver Antonio Williams? I felt he was primed for a solid day against the Giants with Stefon Diggs ruled out. I predicted he would outperform his WR48, 8.7-point Footballguys projection. The rookie finished as WR56 with 6.1 points. One more miss. ❌
Well, 2-7 is better than 1-8. But it's not ideal, and I have nobody to blame but myself for being overly aggressive and taking too many chances, Watson for being amazing, and Loveland, who reminded me that momentum can stop as fast as it starts.
Here's where we stand after Week 5:
Week 5: 2-7
Season: 17-28
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to finish at .500 or better on my predictions. Two poor showings in a row leave me at .378 on the season. Yes. I have some ground to make up.
And with that, let's dive into Week 6.
Week 6 Picks at a Glance
In: Kirk Cousins, Tony Pollard, Rome Odunze, Tyler Higbee
Out: Trevor Lawrence, Bucky Irving, Michael Wilson, Juwan Johnson
Outlier to Watch: Tanner McKee
Quarterback
In: Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas vs. Buffalo
Cousins is flying further under the radar than he would have otherwise been were it not for a poor showing against the Patriots last week.
He had three consecutive games with at least 20 fantasy points before his 13.7-point, QB20 outing in New England.
That poor showing notwithstanding, Cousins stands at QB9 on the season.
On Sunday, he faces a Buffalo defense that's allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including three 25-plus-point fantasy scores, matching the Lions and Commanders for most in the league, as well as the second-most pass completions per game (26.8).
In his Week 6 Passing Matchups, Footballguy Devin Knotts notes four of five opposing quarterbacks have topped 265 yards and thrown multiple touchdowns. That includes in last week's overtime road loss to the Rams, in which they allowed Matthew Stafford to go for more than 300 passing yards with three touchdowns.
Those four games became shootouts, each with 55-plus combined points and a relatively close final score.
The Bills-Raiders have this week's highest over/under (53.5), with the Raiders 5.5-point underdogs, signaling that another pass-friendly game script should be in order.
The only worry, as CBS Sports' Jamey Eisenberg suggested, is that if the Bills build a big lead early, then the Raiders could turn to Fernando Mendoza to get playing time, as we saw last week in New England.
Bottom line: Cousins' Footballguys projection calls for a QB13 finish with 17.4 points. I say Cousins finishes inside QB1 territory.
Out: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville vs. Houston (in London)
Lawrence is coming off a solid outing in last week's win over the Eagles in London. This week, he'll face the division rival Texans, also in London.
As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft suggested, his performance against Philadelphia wasn't as impressive as his final fantasy score indicated (21.7 points). Cockcroft further noted that 43 percent of Lawrence's production came with his team trailing in the fourth quarter.
Lawrence has had a fine year from an on-field standpoint, but Cockcroft notes that his fantasy results have been hit-or-miss. Facing a defense with the amount of talent the Texans have -- even if they haven't totally hit stride this season -- is a concern.
In addition, Lawrence has struggled against Houston throughout his career; according to Eisenberg, he has averaged 11.6 fantasy points in 10 career starts against the Texans and 8.2 against them in four meetings from 2024 to 2025.
Eisenberg added that it doesn't help that left tackle Anton Harrison (knee) is out for this game, and Walker Little will have to protect Lawrence against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
To be clear, this isn't a call to bench Lawrence. Instead, it's about setting realistic expectations.
Bottom line: Lawrence is projected to finish as QB10 with 17.8 points. I say he falls short of that QB10 outcome.