We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Detroit Lions Coin-Toss Questions
- Is Detroit still a fantasy-rich offense?
- Is Pacheco a target, just a handcuff, or a player to avoid?
- Will LaPorta bounce back? Where should he be ranked?
- Is Williams a Top-25 fantasy receiver?
Q: Isiah Pacheco was signed to replace David Montgomery as Jahmyr Gibbs' backup. Where do you rank Pacheco, and do you expect him to have a similar workload to Montgomery's role in prior seasons?
Sigmund Bloom: Pacheco is purely a Jahmyr Gibbs injury upside backup. I am open to putting the 2024 4th-round pick and safety convert Sione Vaki ahead of him if Vaki can actually stay healthy through camp. Pacheco is a high-effort back a la Montgomery, and he could be a fan favorite, but he looked very ordinary after a promising start to a career for a seventh-round pick.
Maurile Tremblay: Pacheco is a low-end RB3 or early RB4. I would not expect his workload to resemble Montgomery's role in prior seasons. Montgomery was trusted with early-down work, goal-line carries, and enough volume to produce standalone fantasy value. Pacheco's role should be smaller, getting around six to ten carries per week, with Gibbs handling the primary workload and nearly all of the receiving duties. The erosion in Pacheco's athletic ability over the past two seasons is hard to ignore. He ranked fourth-worst among qualified backs in explosive run percentage last season and never broke a 20-yard run. Sione Vaki is a safety convert with athletic upside who could theoretically offer more dynamic ability than Pacheco.
Meng Song: I would expect the Lions to use Pacheco in a similar role to Montgomery's, but the concern is that Detroit's rushing EPA per play fell from 5th in 2024 to 22nd last year. And if anything, their offensive line has gotten worse, not better. Montgomery was the RB31 in 0.5 PPR points per game last season, and I think that would be the best-case outcome for Pacheco. I currently have him ranked a bit lower in the RB4 range.
Andy Hicks: Pacheco signed a low-cost, one-year deal with minimal incentives after two underwhelming seasons in Kansas City. Over that span, he surpassed 60 rushing yards just once, back in Week 2 of the 2024 season. His touchdown production dipped significantly, and a decline in yards per carry ultimately gave the Chiefs little reason to retain him. I would not be surprised if the Lions add another option during the draft with better long-term prospects. For Pacheco, I have little confidence that he gets his career back on track and would rank him much closer to 50th than 20th off the board. If the Lions do not add anyone and Pacheco looks good during camp, maybe I will reevaluate.
Jeff Haseley: I rank Isiah Pacheco as a high-end RB3. He won't get the 1b treatment that David Montgomery did — this is the Jahmyr Gibbs show now. He'll have his chance to get touches, but he's likely not going to exceed 200 carries this season.
