We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Detroit Lions Coin-Toss Questions
- Is Detroit still a fantasy-rich offense?
- Is Pacheco a target, just a handcuff, or a player to avoid?
- Will LaPorta bounce back? Where should he be ranked?
- Is Williams a Top-25 fantasy receiver?
The Lions fired OC John Morton and replaced him with Drew Petzing. Yet, the Lions offense was 5th (28.3 points per game) in 2025, while Petzing never fielded a top-10 offense in three years calling plays with the Cardinals. Do you expect the Lions offense to improve, stay the same, or decline in 2026 versus last season?
Sigmund Bloom: The Lions definitely took a step back under Morton, and Dan Campbell replaced him as the play-caller in the middle of the season. The results were mixed, just as they were with Morton. The book on Petzing is still being written as we see how he and Kyler Murray do away from each other this season. I do think the offense could miss David Montgomery more than some are calculating, but overall, I would expect the productivity to be similar to 2025 — one of the best offenses for fantasy football, but still frustrating at times and subject to volatility week-to-week, especially when outdoors.
Maurile Tremblay: I'd expect the Lions offense to improve. The offensive line was the root cause of Detroit's offensive problems in 2025. They ranked 30th in average time to pressure and got Goff sacked a career-high 38 times. The rushing attack fell from 7th in success rate from 2022 through 2024 to 26th in 2025. The line has been upgraded this offseason: Cade Mays at center replaces the struggling Graham Glasgow, Penei Sewell slides to his natural left tackle spot, and Larry Borom steps in at right tackle. The offensive scheme should be upgraded as well. When Campbell took over play-calling from mid-season, the offense jumped from 16th to 2nd in explosive play rate and from 18th to 6th in play-action rate from Weeks 10 through 17. The move away from John Morton as play-caller is a reason for optimism.
Meng Song: I would expect Detroit's offense to decline further in 2026 following the release of left tackle Taylor Decker and the re-retirement of center Frank Ragnow. Their finish as the fifth-best offense in points per game is somewhat misleading, buoyed by big performances against below-average defenses. From 2024 to 2025, following Ben Johnson's departure for Chicago, Detroit's offense fell from 3rd in EPA per play to 10th, and its 3rd-down conversion rate fell from 4th to a disastrous 22nd. The only silver lining is that the Lions will have an easier strength of schedule after having finished last in the division in 2025.
Andy Hicks: If you stay still in the NFL, you are going backward. The Lions clearly regressed following the departure of Ben Johnson. Changing the offensive coordinator this year may help, but will it improve Jared Goff from some patchy play last year? The Lions look like they have a better schedule than last year's difficult one, but most of it is on the back nine — by then, the damage could be done. Unless the Lions pull a rabbit out of the hat during the draft or before the season starts, I cannot see confidence in a return to the Ben Johnson days.
Jeff Haseley: I expect a slight decline in overall PPG. Drew Petzing is a respected coach, but replacing John Morton's top-5 production is a massive ask. Petzing leans heavily on the run, which might lead to more ball control but fewer explosive scoring outbursts.
