We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Detroit Lions Coin-Toss Questions
- Is Detroit still a fantasy-rich offense?
- Is Pacheco a target, just a handcuff, or a player to avoid?
- Will LaPorta bounce back? Where should he be ranked?
- Is Williams a Top-25 fantasy receiver?
Q: Sam LaPorta was TE10 before going on injured reserve for spinal surgery. Do you expect him to bounce back this season? Where do you rank him?
Sigmund Bloom: Spinal surgery sounds scary, but LaPorta's procedure was reportedly for a herniated disc, and he expects to be ready for training camp. He was underperforming at ADP in the John Morton offense, but we didn't get to see whether his fortunes would have changed with Campbell calling the shots. He's currently TE8 around pick 100 in early Underdog drafts, which seems reasonable and could be good value if LaPorta stays healthy as he enters his career peak at age 25 this year.
Maurile Tremblay: I'd rank LaPorta in the TE7-TE9 range. The herniated disc accumulated from repeated trauma before fully manifesting during the Week 10 game against Washington. By the time he had surgery, he was dealing with numbness, tingling, and muscle loss that compromised basic athletic movements. I agree with Sigmund that the procedure itself shouldn't scare people off, but I'd want to see LaPorta moving well in preseason before drafting him. Drew Petzing's Arizona offenses led the league in tight end target share at 34.2%. Petzing uses vertical patterns and creative screen concepts that are a good fit for LaPorta's skill set.
Meng Song: That depends on your definition of "bounce back." Since Jameson Williams' role grew in 2024, LaPorta's targets per game have decreased from 7.1 as a rookie to 5.3 over the last two seasons. That said, even with a lower target share, LaPorta was still the TE7 in 0.5 PPR points per game last season prior to his season-ending back surgery. Anywhere in the back-end TE1 range seems fair for LaPorta heading into 2026, probably somewhere between TE7 and TE10.
Andy Hicks: LaPorta has to bounce back if the Lions are to improve their offense — preferably a return to his rookie season numbers from 2023. New offensive coordinator Drew Petzing did utilize Trey McBride well once Jacoby Brissett was under center. Before that, with Kyler Murray, not so much. I expect a return to form for LaPorta and would rank him third, only behind McBride and Brock Bowers. LaPorta may even have added fantasy value with a trio of second-year tight ends likely to be preferred.
Jeff Haseley: Spinal surgery is heavy stuff. I expect a slow start for LaPorta, but he's too talented not to bounce back. I have him in the TE9-10 range, dropping him out of the elite tier until we see him move at full speed.
