We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Houston Texans Coin-Toss Questions
- Can Stroud Return to Top-12 Fantasy QB Status?
- Is Montgomery a Reliable Fantasy Starter in Houston?
- Is Collins Still a Fantasy WR1 in 2026?
- Are Higgins, Dell, or Noel Worth Drafting in 2026?
- Will the Texans' Offensive Line Upgrades Matter for Fantasy?
Nico Collins has finished WR8, WR8, and WR10 (per game) over Stroud's three seasons. Are you comfortable drafting him as your No. 1 fantasy receiver? If not, why?
Maurile: I'm only somewhat comfortable with it. Collins is still the top name in the Texans' wide receiver room, but his 2025 underlying performance slipped a lot, especially in terms of getting open. Add in Tank Dell's expected return, Dalton Schultz's steady target share, and a Texans offense that looks more balanced than pass-heavy, and Collins feels more like a borderline WR1/WR2 rather than an every-week fantasy starter.
Andy: No. The Texans have multiple viable alternatives in the receiving corps. Second-year players Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel join the returning Tank Dell, and all three — each drafted in the third round or higher — have the talent to command meaningful target shares. Higgins and Dell, in particular, have the upside to emerge as fantasy starters. For Collins, the concern lies in volume. His target totals already lag behind those of elite receivers, and without the boost of a rushing touchdown, his production would have settled in the mid-WR2 range. That margin is thin, especially with increased competition for targets. There's also a longer-term angle to consider: Collins signed a three-year extension just last season, which is relatively short compared to deals typically given to receivers in his age bracket. If the Texans' younger receivers carve out larger roles, Collins could see a notable dip in market value as early as the second year of that contract.
Jeff: I'm comfortable with Nico Collins as a low-end WR1, but I prefer him as a high-end WR2. He's finished in the Top 10 per game three years running, so the production is undeniable, and without a big name opposite him, he should once again dominate targets.
