We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
New England Patriots Coin-Toss Questions:
- Do you need OL help to feel comfortable drafting Drake Maye as a QB1?
- Who do you rank higher: TreVeyon Henderson or Rhamondre Stevenson?
- Where do you rank Romeo Doubs?
- Are the Patriots done adding receivers this offseason?
Q: Drake Maye played at an elite level despite playing behind one of the league's worst offensive lines. Do you need to see the team add at least one high-end rookie starting lineman to feel comfortable drafting Maye as a QB1 (Top 12)?
Meng Song: No, because much of Maye's production came on the ground, and I expect him to continue scrambling. That said, I'd preach caution with a much tougher schedule this season compared to last. I'd feel better about Maye at his current QB7 ADP if New England were to get A.J. Brown post June 1.
Maurile Tremblay: The short answer is no. The Patriots have already taken meaningful steps to address the line this offseason, and Maye's profile is strong enough to absorb some remaining risk. Maye finished second in MVP voting and led the Patriots to a 17-4 record and a Super Bowl appearance in 2025. That's extraordinary production despite the line issues, which were most glaring in the playoffs when he absorbed 21 sacks in four games. His durability and prototypical build help him succeed in the face of pressure. New England has already made a significant upgrade to its offensive line by signing Alijah Vera-Tucker to play left guard. He's an excellent guard when he's healthy. Jared Wilson is moving to center, his natural college position. Mike Onwenu was the unit's best performer in 2025, and Will Campbell, last year's first-round pick, now has a full year of development under his belt. The team will likely draft a tackle early to eventually replace the aging Morgan Moses, but Moses should be fine in 2026. But even if the line is merely average rather than good, that would be a meaningful upgrade from what Maye had during last year's playoff run.
Jeff Haseley: Maye was incredible in 2025, but for him to hit that top-12 status consistently, he needs help. I don't need to see a high-end rookie lineman to draft him, but it would certainly make me feel better about his floor.
VERDICT: My current high projection (QB2) assumes more offensive line help.
I'm coming at this from the other direction. My current projections have Maye at QB2 overall, behind only the ever-dominant Josh Allen. That assumes the extraordinary play we saw last year, which occurred despite an awful offensive line and a lack of receiver talent, will be improved by the time training camp gets underway. However, if the April draft comes and goes without a commensurate improvement in offensive line talent, I will likely lower my projections for Maye toward the consensus. He will still be a top-10 option at the position regardless, but he needs more help to maintain his current standing in my rankings.
Q: Who do you rank higher: TreVeyon Henderson or Rhamondre Stevenson?
Meng Song: Give me James White (Henderson )over LeGarrette Blount (Stevenson). Henderson has the big-play potential and receiving prowess to become a more reliable fantasy asset in Year 2. Plus, following the same line of thinking as the question above: a tougher schedule likely means more playing from behind and passing-game scripts, which favor Henderson. I'm not sure we'll see as many leading game scripts as last year, where New England was content to pound the rock with Stevenson in the second half.
Maurile Tremblay: I'd rank Rhamondre Stevenson higher, but it's close. Stevenson's durability and versatility give him a solid fantasy floor, guaranteeing involvement on passing downs. Henderson admittedly has the more exciting ceiling. His rookie production was driven by explosive plays rather than sustained execution, and he needs to improve in pass protection to expand his role. I'd project him for high weekly volatility. In a standard fantasy league, I want the back who is more likely to be on the field in all game scripts. Stevenson's receiving work and pass protection give him that edge. Henderson is the better bet if you're chasing upside in a best-ball format.
Jeff Haseley: I'm still leaning Rhamondre Stevenson over TreVeyon Henderson for 2026. Stevenson's contract and Mike Vrabel's history suggest he'll remain the lead dog, with Henderson acting as the explosive change-of-pace weapon.
VERDICT: Henderson has a razor-thin edge over Stevenson.
I think we all see this as a genuine committee if both are healthy. My current projections give Henderson a slight eight-point edge over his veteran teammate, but given the margin of error in season-long projections, that effectively puts them on even ground. If both were available when I'm up in the draft, I would likely click on Henderson's name because of the higher upside. We know who Stevenson is now: a very good, effective every-down contributor when he's not getting in trouble with ball security. We don't yet know who Henderson is; 2026 will go a long way toward answering whether he will be a committee contributor for the rest of his career or has enough talent to ascend into the elite ranks of true bell cows.
