Travis Etienne Jr. was among the most notable fantasy-relevant free agents this offseason, parlaying a strong four-year start in Jacksonville into a two-year, $24.5 million deal ($19.2 million guaranteed) with New Orleans. Head coach Kellen Moore knew the Saints weren't positioned for a quick turnaround last year, but he had to be frustrated by a 28th-place offensive finish. Etienne is one of the key additions brought in to put this offense back on solid footing and bring it more in line with what we've come to expect from Moore's units.
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The fantasy community is buying into Etienne's new circumstance; he's currently coming off the board as the RB17 in the third or fourth round of 12-team leagues. I'm projecting him as the RB19, which puts me roughly in line with consensus. Admittedly, there are a few tailbacks I'd prefer to select at that point in the draft ahead of his current ADP.
To properly evaluate whether Etienne is worth a pick at consensus, we'll break down his outlook across five core questions:
- Is Etienne a Special Talent?
- What About Alvin Kamara?
- What About the Offensive Line?
- What About Tyler Shough and the Passing Attack?
- What About the Defense?
Is Etienne a Special Talent?
Travis Etienne Jr. Career Statistics
| Rank | Per Game Rank | Team | Year | Gms | Rsh | RshYd | YPR | RuTD | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | FPT/Gm | FPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 24 | JAX | 2022 | 17 | 220 | 1,125 | 5.1 | 5 | 35 | 316 | 0 | 11.3 | 191.6 |
| 4 | 7 | JAX | 2023 | 17 | 267 | 1,008 | 3.8 | 11 | 58 | 476 | 1 | 14.7 | 249.4 |
| 36 | 44 | JAX | 2024 | 15 | 150 | 558 | 3.7 | 2 | 39 | 254 | 0 | 7.5 | 112.7 |
| 10 | 13 | JAX | 2025 | 17 | 260 | 1,107 | 4.3 | 7 | 36 | 292 | 6 | 13.9 | 235.9 |
Despite finishing as a top-24 fantasy asset in three of his four seasons, there has always been significant debate within the analyst community about how talented Etienne truly is. Plenty of analysts I respect maintain he has been a beneficiary of workload opportunities rather than innate ability. There's always subjectivity when separating underlying skill from situation, but we can look at some efficiency metrics courtesy of NFL.com's NextGen Stats:
- Yards after Contact/Carry: The average number of yards a ball carrier gains after being contacted.
- RYOE (Rushing Yards Over Expected): The difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series.
- Success Rate: Percentage of carries resulting in a positive EPA (plays that "keep the offense on schedule").
- Stacked Rate: Percentage of carries faced against 8+ defenders in the box.
Running Back Efficiency Metrics: Travis Etienne Jr.
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yards after Contact/Carry | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| RYOE/Carry | 1.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.2 |
| Success Rate | 44.1% | 34.5% | 38.7% | 36.2% |
| Stacked Rate | 25.0% | 22.8% | 18.0% | 22.7% |
Etienne's Rank Among Qualified Runners
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yds/Contact per Carry | 10/41 | 38/44 | 27/48 | 29/48 |
| RYOE per Carry | 3/41 | 34/44 | 34/41 | 32/48 |
| Success Rate | 8/41 | 36/44 | 25/41 | 41/48 |
| Stacked Rate | 11/41 | 12/44 | 30/41 | 30/48 |
It's hard to look at these numbers and argue that Etienne is one of the better pure talents at the position. He has ranked near the bottom across most metrics outside his promising 2022 season. You'll note that his best fantasy season (2023) came without these underlying metrics standing out.
Is any of this predictive? I'm not going to bang the gavel; I don't generally utilize these metrics when projecting forward. But it is important to acknowledge the debate because many of my industry counterparts let these numbers shape how they view Etienne and his future value.