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Tyler Warren finished his rookie season as the No. 9 ranked tight end (0.5 PPR), following in the footsteps of recent rookie studs Sam LaPorta, Brock Bowers, and fellow 2025 rookies Colston Loveland and Harold Fannin Jr. But his full-season greatness hides a painful reality: he was effectively worthless from Weeks 14 through 18, which is when fantasy managers needed him most. That's when the Colts' train derailed as starting quarterback Daniel Jones tore his Achilles early in Week 14.
Despite last year's late-season swoon, fantasy managers appear set to buy back into Warren in Year Two. Much of that confidence is directly correlated to reports that Jones is recovering well from his injury and should be healthy enough to start Week 1.
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There are three central questions to answer in evaluating whether to target Ty Warren at his current ADP (TE4, 59th overall) in the late fifth round:
- Is Warren capable of elite numbers?
- Was Daniel Jones' injury the main reason for Warren's falloff?
- Are we confident that Jones is a reliable piece to a top-tier offensive engine?
Is Warren Capable of Elite Numbers?
Some might say this is a rhetorical question, since he finished as a top-10 tight end last year. But "elite" and "startable" are very different in fantasy football parlance.
2025 Tight End Rankings (0.5 PPR Scoring, Sorted by Points per Game)
| Rank | PGRank | Name | Team | Gms | Recs | RecYd | RecTD | FPT/Gm | FPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Trey McBride | ARI | 17 | 126 | 1,239 | 11 | 14.9 | 252.9 |
| 19 | 2 | Tucker Kraft | GB | 8 | 32 | 489 | 6 | 12.6 | 100.9 |
| 13 | 3 | George Kittle | SF | 11 | 57 | 628 | 7 | 12.1 | 133.3 |
| 10 | 4 | Brock Bowers | LV | 12 | 64 | 680 | 7 | 11.8 | 142.0 |
| 3 | 5 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | 15 | 60 | 591 | 11 | 10.3 | 155.1 |
| 2 | 6 | Kyle Pitts Sr.. | ATL | 17 | 88 | 928 | 5 | 9.8 | 166.8 |
| 27 | 7 | Sam LaPorta | DET | 9 | 40 | 489 | 3 | 9.7 | 86.9 |
| 8 | 8 | Harold Fannin Jr.. | CLE | 16 | 72 | 731 | 6 | 9.1 | 145.1 |
| 4 | 9 | Travis Kelce | KC | 17 | 76 | 851 | 5 | 9.0 | 153.1 |
| 17 | 10 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 12 | 39 | 571 | 5 | 8.9 | 106.6 |
| 5 | 11 | Jake Ferguson | DAL | 17 | 82 | 600 | 8 | 8.8 | 149.0 |
| 6 | 12 | Hunter Henry | NE | 17 | 60 | 768 | 7 | 8.8 | 148.8 |
| 7 | 13 | Juwan Johnson | NO | 17 | 77 | 889 | 3 | 8.6 | 145.4 |
| 12 | 14 | Colston Loveland | CHI | 16 | 58 | 713 | 6 | 8.5 | 136.3 |
| 31 | 15 | Darren Waller | MIA | 9 | 24 | 283 | 6 | 8.5 | 76.3 |
| 9 | 16 | Tyler Warren | IND | 17 | 76 | 817 | 4 | 8.5 | 143.7 |
| 11 | 17 | Dalton Schultz | HOU | 17 | 82 | 777 | 3 | 8.0 | 136.7 |
| 23 | 18 | Brenton Strange | JAX | 12 | 46 | 540 | 3 | 7.9 | 95.0 |
| 20 | 19 | Zach Ertz | WAS | 13 | 50 | 504 | 4 | 7.6 | 99.4 |
| 15 | 20 | Colby Parkinson | LAR | 15 | 43 | 408 | 8 | 7.4 | 110.3 |
Warren's 8.5 fantasy points per game ranked just 16th, while the genuinely elite players at the position—Trey McBride (14.9), Tucker Kraft (12.6), and George Kittle (12.1)—were massively more valuable when they were in lineups. To Warren's credit, he was healthy for the entire season, unlike Kraft and Kittle (and Bowers), but that doesn't change the fact Warren was outscored per week by the likes of Hunter Henry (8.8), Jake Ferguson (8.8), and Dalton Kincaid (8.9).
Since last year's numbers were "good" and not "elite," how else might we make a case for future greatness?
The Draft Capital Argument
Warren was selected 14th overall in the 2025 draft, after being one of Penn State's most important offensive pieces. Very few tight ends have been first-round selections in modern football. So surely that rarity alone is a reason to expect excellence, no?
No.
Only 20 tight ends have been first-round selections in the last 21 years.
1st Round Tight Ends (2006-2026)
| Year | Round | Pick | Player | NFL Team | College Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 16 | Kenyon Sadiq | Jets | Oregon |
| 2025 | 1 | 10 | Colston Loveland | Bears | Michigan |
| 2025 | 1 | 14 | Tyler Warren | Colts | Penn State |
| 2024 | 1 | 13 | Brock Bowers | Raiders | Georgia |
| 2023 | 1 | 25 | Dalton Kincaid | Bills | Utah |
| 2021 | 1 | 4 | Kyle Pitts Sr. | Falcons | Florida |
| 2019 | 1 | 8 | T.J. Hockenson | Lions | Iowa |
| 2019 | 1 | 20 | Noah Fant | Broncos | Iowa |
| 2018 | 1 | 25 | Hayden Hurst | Ravens | South Carolina |
| 2017 | 1 | 19 | O.J. Howard | Buccaneers | Alabama |
| 2017 | 1 | 23 | Evan Engram | Giants | Mississippi |
| 2017 | 1 | 29 | David Njoku | Browns | Miami (FL) |
| 2014 | 1 | 10 | Eric Ebron | Lions | North Carolina |
| 2013 | 1 | 21 | Tyler Eifert | Bengals | Notre Dame |
| 2010 | 1 | 21 | Jermaine Gresham | Bengals | Oklahoma |
| 2009 | 1 | 20 | Brandon Pettigrew | Lions | Oklahoma State |
| 2008 | 1 | 30 | Dustin Keller | Jets | Purdue |
| 2007 | 1 | 31 | Greg Olsen | Bears | Miami (FL) |
| 2006 | 1 | 6 | Vernon Davis | 49ers | Maryland |
| 2006 | 1 | 28 | Marcedes Lewis | Jaguars | UCLA |
Unfortunately, there are very few elite players on that list. There are certainly very good players who had a handful of fantasy-relevant seasons. But other than Bowers (who has only had one great season in two years, to be fair), no one else reaches the elite fantasy mark. The greats of this era, including Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta, and Trey McBride, were all selected later. Draft capital tells us the Colts love Warren; history tells us it doesn't guarantee a ceiling.