I currently rank De'Von Achane as the RB10, which is a resounding endorsement of his elite talent. Yet, because his current ADP sits at a lofty RB7 (13th overall), some might assume I'm "down" on him.
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The truth is, both perspectives can coexist; they are not mutually exclusive. Ranking Achane as a top-10 back acknowledges that he is one of the most explosive pure football players on Earth. The Dolphins confirmed this reality in May by handing him a massive four-year, $64 million extension to make him the undisputed centerpiece of the franchise. However, expecting him to return top-7 value requires ignoring the stark reality of a completely gutted roster.
I likely won't end up with many shares of Achane this season. It isn't because I think he'll bust, but because his elite talent is about to collide with arguably the worst ecosystem of any top-tier running back in the league.
The Snapshot: Why RB10 and Not RB7?
Before diving into the systemic issues in Miami, let's look at the hard data from Achane's remarkable career to date:
De'Von Achane Career Statistics
| Rank | PerGameRank | Year | Gms | Rsh | RshYd | YPR | RuTD | Recs | RecYd | RecTD | FPT/Gm | FPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 4 | 2023 | 11 | 103 | 800 | 7.8 | 8 | 27 | 197 | 3 | 16.3 | 179.2 |
| 7 | 11 | 2024 | 17 | 203 | 907 | 4.5 | 6 | 78 | 592 | 6 | 15.3 | 260.9 |
| 6 | 5 | 2025 | 16 | 238 | 1,350 | 5.7 | 8 | 67 | 488 | 4 | 18.1 | 289.3 |
We aren't breaking news by acknowledging how spectacular Achane has been. He missed time as a rookie but was a top-5 back on a per-game basis while averaging an almost impossible 7.8 yards per carry. Predictably, his efficiency regressed in 2024 to 4.5 yards per rush, but skeptics failed to account for his evolution into a dynamic receiving weapon, resulting in an RB11 finish. He saved his best for last in 2025, flourishing with an RB6 overall finish despite a struggling offense and defensive coordinators entirely keyed in on stopping him.
A Gutted Roster and a New Regime
After back-to-back losing seasons and an offensive collapse from 2nd overall in 2023 to 22nd and 25th over the next two years, ownership decided to burn it down.
Miami hired a new General Manager, Jon-Eric Sullivan, who spent over two decades in the Green Bay Packers' front office. His arrival triggered a total organizational pivot, leading to the hire of former Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley as head coach and the addition of former Packers backup Malik Willis as the starting quarterback.
The new regime systematically dismantled the depth chart, setting up a multi-year rebuild by moving on from cornerstone talent:
- QB Tua Tagovailoa
- WR Tyreek Hill
- WR Jaylen Waddle
- TE Darren Waller.
- TE Julian Hill
- OL Cole Strange
- FB Alec Ingold
- S Minkah Fitzpatrick
- EDGE Bradley Chubb
- CB Jack Jones.
What remains is inarguably one of the least competitive rosters in the NFL.
- The Trenches: Footballguys Offensive Line specialist Matt Bitonti ranks Miami's offensive line 30th overall and their run-blocking 31st.
- The Defense: Our consensus DST rankings place Miami 30th.
- The Offense: My offensive projections rank Miami 30th in total yards and 29th in touchdowns.
The market has adjusted accordingly, with Las Vegas and major analytical models viewing the Dolphins as a consensus bottom-two team.
NFL Win Total Futures
| Rank | Team | Avg Win Total | Implied Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Baltimore Ravens
|
11.25 | 66.2% |
| 1 |
Los Angeles Rams
|
11.25 | 66.2% |
| 3 |
San Francisco 49ers
|
10.50 | 61.8% |
| 3 |
Seattle Seahawks
|
10.50 | 61.8% |
| 3 |
Detroit Lions
|
10.50 | 61.8% |
| 3 |
Kansas City Chiefs
|
10.50 | 61.8% |
| 3 |
Buffalo Bills
|
10.50 | 61.8% |
| 8 |
Philadelphia Eagles
|
10.25 | 60.3% |
| 8 |
Los Angeles Chargers
|
10.25 | 60.3% |
| 10 |
Green Bay Packers
|
10.00 | 58.8% |
| 10 |
Cincinnati Bengals
|
10.00 | 58.8% |
| 12 |
New England Patriots
|
9.75 | 57.4% |
| 13 |
Chicago Bears
|
9.50 | 55.9% |
| 13 |
Houston Texans
|
9.50 | 55.9% |
| 13 |
Denver Broncos
|
9.50 | 55.9% |
| 16 |
Dallas Cowboys
|
9.25 | 54.4% |
| 17 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
9.00 | 52.9% |
| 18 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
8.50 | 50.0% |
| 18 |
Pittsburgh Steelers
|
8.50 | 50.0% |
| 18 |
Minnesota Vikings
|
8.50 | 50.0% |
| 21 |
Indianapolis Colts
|
8.00 | 47.1% |
| 22 |
Washington Commanders
|
7.50 | 44.1% |
| 22 |
New Orleans Saints
|
7.50 | 44.1% |
| 22 |
New York Giants
|
7.50 | 44.1% |
| 25 |
Atlanta Falcons
|
7.00 | 41.2% |
| 25 |
Carolina Panthers
|
7.00 | 41.2% |
| 27 |
Tennessee Titans
|
6.50 | 38.2% |
| 28 |
Cleveland Browns
|
5.75 | 33.8% |
| 28 |
Las Vegas Raiders
|
5.75 | 33.8% |
| 30 |
New York Jets
|
5.50 | 32.4% |
| 31 |
Miami Dolphins
|
4.50 | 26.5% |
| 32 |
Arizona Cardinals
|
4.25 | 25.0% |
Power Rankings
- The Athletic models Miami with the worst roster, with a league-worst -7.1 expected margin of victory
- ESPN ranks them 32nd in their Football Power Index
- Sharp Football also ranks the Dolphins 32nd
From McDaniel to Slowik
Furthermore, the coaching change brings massive offensive questions. With Mike McDaniel gone, Hafley surprisingly stayed in-house by promoting Bobby Slowik to offensive coordinator. Slowik served as Miami's senior passing game coordinator last year and was Houston's embattled play-caller in 2023 and 2024. Regardless of your evaluation of Slowik, it is highly concerning that an organization undergoing a complete rebuild entrusted its offense to a coordinator who was directly attached to last year's flatlined unit.
History Is Not on Achane's Side
The crux of my concern, and the primary reason Achane won't be on my rosters at a top-7 price tag, is that the fantasy community is being too complacent about the historical floor of running backs on bottom-5 offenses.
I analyzed the last five seasons, tracking the top-performing fantasy running back from the bottom-5 scoring offenses each year: