We spend all offseason doing our best to read tea leaves. Week 1 tricks us into thinking we got our answers. Week 2 reminds us that the NFL season is long. Some flukey situations stabilized after Week 1. Other surprises galvanized after a second similar showing. Heading into Week 3, here are some risers and fallers worth watching.
For even more risers and fallers, check out the newest episode of The Footballguys Fantasy Football Show, where Bob Harris and I added context to the players below and discussed even more significant movers.
Week 3 Risers
QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco
Currently leading all quarterbacks in EPA (expected points added) and CPOE (completion percentage over expectation), Purdy is playing lights out through the first two weeks. The film is clean, and the analytics are elite. He's third in fantasy scoring, aided by five passing touchdowns and another on the ground. Purdy has proven to be a master of Kyle Shanahan's system, and he adds just enough rushing moxie to raise his floor and ceiling. Purdy was likely drafted as a back-end QB1, or maybe even a QB2. But he's a must-start QB1 going forward, especially next week against the Cardinals.
RB TreVeyon Henderson, New England
In his season debut, Henderson looked like an RB1. A chunk run up the middle immediately reminded us of last year's big plays. Henderson is a decisive burner, and he needs only a small crease to score from anywhere on the field. Rhamondre Stevenson is a valued running back, and he isn't going to disappear. But Henderson's 60% snap share was the second-highest of any game Henderson has ever played alongside Stevenson. If he's getting that sort of workload in his first game back from injury, it's not inconceivable that the team has bigger plans for Henderson in Year 2. He's in the weekly RB2 discussion, and his ceiling is as high as anyone's in this range.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo
The ascension continues. Kincaid was fantastic in Week 1, and only better in Week 2. Operating as the Bills' secondary receiver behind DJ Moore, he became the offensive focal point in Week 2 after Moore left the game injured. His 4.59 yards per route run is second in the NFL behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kincaid was a great prospect coming into the league, and the early part of his career has been inconsistent due to a litany of injuries. But he's been healthy through the early part of this season and has crept his way into the elite tier of difference-making TE1s.
Week 3 Fallers
QB Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
Something is broken with the Chargers. Missed blocking assignments, fumbles, bad bounces, penalties, miscommunication, injuries. On almost every drive, something goes catastrophically wrong. Herbert's upside was evident when he threw for over 5,000 yards in his second season. But he's yet to come close to that production since, and nothing about the first two games of the season suggests that a bounceback is imminent. He's benchable going forward, and can be dropped in single-quarterback leagues with ten or fewer teams.
RB Travis Etienne Jr., New Orleans
Etienne was a big faller last week and falls even more this week. In Week 1, he ceded a shocking amount of work to Kendre Miller. I mentioned concerns about what could happen to Etienne if Kamara returned and regained the role as the pass-catcher, and that's exactly what happened. Kamara had 15 opportunities, and Etienne just 10. Frankly, Kamara didn't do much. He averaged just 1.6 yards per touch, looking like a 31-year-old off a knee injury. He may improve as he shakes off the rust, but given Kellen Moore's split backfield over the first two weeks, it's hard to view Etienne as anything more than a high-end RB3 for now.
WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City
A 31-yard unguarded catch-and-run leading into halftime salvaged his Week 2 outing, but Rice's valuable role from the last few seasons is otherwise gone. A legitimate run game means the Chiefs no longer have to force short targets to Rice, and the numbers back it up. Rice's targets per route run ranked inside the top ten in each of his first three seasons: 0.27, 0.34, and 0.31. That rate is at 0.11 through Week 2, ranking 120th of 145 qualifying receivers. Things can theoretically improve, but a different offensive system could end Rice's run as an elite fantasy asset. If you can trade him for any top-20 wide receiver, you should.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona
We are officially on bust alert. Harrison looks awful as he starts his third year as a pro. He continues to struggle with drops, and his separation concerns have only been exacerbated. He seems unengaged and is going through the motions without intensity in game situations. Through two weeks, he has just four targets and one 33-yard reception. The offense runs through Trey McBride. Michael Wilson is the WR1. Kendrick Bourne has become a full-time player and has 11 targets to Harrison's four. Our Sigmund Bloom talked about Harrison as a potential sabotage drop after Week 1. At this point, if you drop him in a shallow league, he might not even get picked up. I'll hold onto hope for a few more weeks in the small handful of leagues I have him in, but I understand why some Harrison managers might be willing to cut bait and move on.
Follow @DaveKluge Follow @Footballguys