Nothing pushes a player up draft boards faster than the promise of a breakout. A strong finish, an expanded role, or a few glowing training camp reports can turn a young bargain into an expensive bet. Sometimes the rise is justified. Other times, the upside is already baked into the price.
We asked the Footballguys staff which young players are climbing, and how high is too high to draft them.
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A quick note on staff opinions: One of the strengths of Footballguys is the range of opinions across our staff. Features like this one are designed to show you where individual analysts differ. But we don't waffle. For our final say on where we see a player, check the Footballguys Consensus Rankings, where we bring the staff together and plant a flag on how we think the players should be ranked.
Jonathan Brooks, Carolina
- ADP on 7/28: 102.5
- ADP on 8/28: 72.3
Where our staff would take him:
- Highest: 70
- Lowest: 120
Jeff Tefertiller: Brooks has looked fantastic after missing last year as he recovered from an ACL injury. In fact, it was his second ACL tear (on his right knee) in just thirteen months (November 2023 and December 2024). Brooks has looked so good that fantasy managers are forgetting about Chuba Hubbard. The two backs will split snaps - when each is healthy. This was confirmed by coach Canales on August 24. I would feel comfortable selecting Brooks in the seventh round, given his upside.
Jason Wood: With Brooks' health and Hubbard's injury, the plate tectonics have understandably shifted. I would draft Brooks at or near his current ADP, which implies an RB27-RB29 range. I'm not far off of that currently, and any further incremental negative update on Hubbard could easily push Brooks into this tier, at a minimum.
Jeff Haseley: Jonathon Brooks is quickly gaining steam in Carolina's backfield. While Chuba Hubbard remains involved, Brooks possesses far superior explosiveness and three-down potential. Paying late-sixth-round draft capital captures his legitimate RB1 upside before his price tag completely climbs into the early rounds. The earliest I'd take him is Pick 70–72 overall.
Meng Song: The early seventh round is too early for a running back who's missed the majority of his first two seasons in the league due to knee issues. At his current ADP, you'd be drafting Jonathon Brooks multiple rounds over other running backs with similar, if not higher, upside, like Blake Corum, Jordan Mason, and others. Brooks' ADP is also pushing him up past strong QB1 options like Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams. I wouldn't take a shot on Brooks until around pick No. 100 overall, in the same range as other running backs with injury and committee concerns, like J.K. Dobbins or teammate Chuba Hubbard.
Maurile Tremblay: The Rico Dowdle carries (1,076 yards last year) are genuinely vacant, but Hubbard is still the lead back once his hamstring clears. AJ Dillon was signed for short-yardage work, and the interior line has given the backs nothing to run behind all preseason. The earliest I'd take him is Pick 84 (Round 7).
Jeff Blaylock: Drafting him around RB30 means putting a lot of faith in Brooks fully recovering his 2023 productivity and taking a significant workload away from Chuba Hubbard all season. If I'm drafting Brooks as my RB3 or RB4 in a bully-RB build strategy, I would nonetheless be willing to take him as high as Pick 72. If I'm drafting him as my RB2 in a hero-RB build where I already have an elite running back on my roster, then I'd draft Brooks as high as Pick 90. Otherwise, I wouldn't take Brooks as my RB2 before Pick 120, and I wouldn't take him at all as my RB1.
Phil Alexander: Brooks already had a legitimate chance to emerge as Carolina's starter, and Chuba Hubbard's hamstring injury might have cleared the runway to open the season. But Hubbard isn't out for the year. By Week 2 or 3, Brooks is probably looking at a 60% share of a backfield attached to one of the league's weaker offenses. Pick 73 prices in most of the post-hype upside, so Hubbard's injury isn't a reason to chase Brooks any further up the board.
Sean Settle: Two ACL tears on the same knee in 13 months is not a footnote; it's the central fact of this evaluation, and Canales has already confirmed this is a snap-share split, not a changing of the guard. Brooks' talent is real, but paying near his current ADP means betting on both a body that's failed twice and a coaching staff choosing to hand him the bulk of the work despite that history. I'd rather let the committee sort itself out over the first few weeks and take him a round-plus later than chase the flashes. The earliest I'd take him is Pick 90 (Round 8).
Jordan Mason, Minnesota
- ADP on 7/28: 124.3
- ADP on 8/28: 93.9
Where our staff would take him:
- Highest: 72
- Lowest: 110
Jeff Tefertiller: The fantasy community is sleeping on Jordan Mason. Aaron Jones Sr. began to decline last season, and Mason offers the Minnesota offense a tough between-the-tackles runner who has the ability to break big plays. I would select Mason a round or so before his current ADP, in the seventh round.
Jason Wood: I'm comfortable drafting Mason as RB36, but no higher, which puts him outside the Top 100 even in a home league that overvalues running backs. He has 32 career receptions despite playing in offenses that make liberal use of running backs in the passing game. Absent contributions as a receiver, Mason becomes a volume- and touchdown-dependent asset on a team that is rebuilding around a mobile red zone quarterback in Kyler Murray.
Jeff Haseley: Jordan Mason has carved out a role as Minnesota's early-down and goal-line rusher, leaving Aaron Jones Sr. to handle passing-down work. His goal-line usage makes him a flex option, while his efficiency provides league-winning upside if the aging Jones misses time or takes a backseat late in his career. The earliest I'd take him is late in Round 8 (Pick 94–96 overall)
Meng Song: I think Jordan Mason is adequately priced at his current ADP. Fantasy managers are finally coming around to the fact that Aaron Jones Sr. will be turning 32 in December, and Minnesota made minimal additions to their running back room this offseason. Plus, the addition of Kyler Murray could really boost Mason's opportunities to make big plays on the ground. Mobile quarterbacks have historically boosted their running backs' efficiency since defenses need to commit an extra man to account for the quarterback potentially running.
Maurile Tremblay: He's the one player on this list I'd take ahead of his surge: he ran wide zone in San Francisco, Minnesota just rebuilt its entire run game around that scheme, and he was the clearest standout of camp. Aaron Jones Sr. keeps the passing downs, and Kyler Murray will steal some scores, but Mason produced the best Vikings ground season of the O'Connell era, and the environment just improved on every front. The earliest I'd take him is as early as Pick 72 (Round 6).
Jeff Blaylock: Mason's ADP of around RB37 is a bit too high considering Aaron Jones Sr. restructured his contract to remain in Minnesota as the team's 1A in a two-man committee. Mason is coming off his best PPR finish (RB36) but posted career lows in average yards per rush and yards per reception. He's more of an upper-end fantasy RB4 than a lower-end RB3, so I'd hold off on taking him until around Pick 108.
Phil Alexander: Mason's July 23rd ADP was much closer to the mark. Minnesota's backfield projects as roughly a 50-50 split, with Mason getting little of the receiving work. Drafting Mason at his August 23rd ADP is largely a bet that Aaron Jones Sr. will miss games. It's a reasonable bet, but not one you need to make inside the top 100 picks when there are still higher-ceiling players with more secure roles on the board. The earliest I'd take him is Pick 110.
Sean Settle: Mason ran wide zone in San Francisco, and Minnesota rebuilt its run scheme around exactly that concept this offseason; that's not a coincidence worth ignoring. Aaron Jones Sr. turns 32 in December and is coming off a down efficiency year, and Kyler Murray's mobility should open up more running lanes for the back next to him than Minnesota has had in years. This is the rare case on this list where the market's price increase actually undersells the fit. The earliest I'd take him is Pick 78 (Round 7).
